Adelaide United
vs
Melbourne Victory
A-League prediction
Our model says: Adelaide United 2–1 Melbourne Victory
The model makes it 38% Adelaide United, 25% draw, 37% Melbourne Victory — fair odds of 2.63, 4.00 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Adelaide United 1.69, Melbourne Victory 1.64.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Adelaide United's rating is built from 29 A-League matches and Melbourne Victory's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 350 matches.
Key facts
- Adelaide United are 11th on 0 points from 1 game; Melbourne Victory are 8th on 1 point from 2 games — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Melbourne Victory 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Melbourne Victory 1–1 Adelaide United.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Adelaide United at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United
A-League
- L1-2away to Sydney FC25 October 2026
Melbourne Victory
A-League
- D1-1Melbourne City24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wellington Phoenix18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
- 27 February 2026Melbourne Victory 1–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 17 January 2026Adelaide United 2–1 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 13 December 2025Melbourne Victory 2–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 29 March 2025Melbourne Victory 5–3 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 18 January 2025Adelaide United 3–2 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 21 September 2024Melbourne Victory 1–0 Adelaide UnitedAustralia Cup
Leading scorers: Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United
No player in A-League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Melbourne Victory
GoalsAssists
- C. Nduka10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Adelaide United carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.34 for Melbourne Victory. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Adelaide United and 1.64 for Melbourne Victory. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Adelaide United rate 0.62 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Melbourne Victory rate 0.60 and 1.65.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Melbourne Victory, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Adelaide United the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Adelaide United against 1.64 for Melbourne Victory. Adelaide United's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.65 for Melbourne Victory.
How the model reaches 38% for Adelaide United to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Adelaide United to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Adelaide United's ratings take away 25 points and Melbourne Victory's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Adelaide United's ratings14%−25
- Melbourne Victory's ratings38%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Adelaide United
- at Western Sydney Wanderers20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
- at Wellington Phoenix6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
- vs Macarthur FC11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 42%
- vs Brisbane Roar15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 45%
Melbourne Victory
- at Auckland FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 34%
- at Sydney FC6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
- vs Newcastle Jets12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
- at Melbourne City19 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.