Carrarese
vs
Sampdoria
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Carrarese 1–0 Sampdoria
The model makes it 49% Carrarese, 29% draw, 22% Sampdoria — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.47, Sampdoria 0.82.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Carrarese: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Carrarese's rating is built from 45 Serie B matches and Sampdoria's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 857 matches.
Key facts
- Carrarese are 17th on 7 points from 7 games; Sampdoria are 19th on 5 points from 8 games — Serie B.
- Carrarese have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Modena.
- Sampdoria are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Sudtirol.
- Last 4 meetings: Carrarese 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 March 2026, ended Carrarese 2–0 Sampdoria.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Carrarese vs Sampdoria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Carrarese at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Carrarese vs Sampdoria
Carrarese
Serie B
- W2-1Modena17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Padova11 October 2026
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
Sampdoria
Serie B
- D1-1away to Sudtirol24 October 2026
- L1-2Arezzo18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Avellino9 October 2026
- W2-1Catanzaro19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mantova13 September 2026
What these results say
- Carrarese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
- Sampdoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Carrarese vs Sampdoria
- 18 March 2026Carrarese 2–0 SampdoriaSerie B
- 7 December 2025Sampdoria 3–2 CarrareseSerie B
- 25 April 2025Carrarese 1–0 SampdoriaSerie B
- 26 December 2024Sampdoria 1–1 CarrareseSerie B
Leading scorers: Carrarese and Sampdoria
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Sampdoria
GoalsAssists
- L. Insigne30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Carrarese carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.34 for Sampdoria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Carrarese and 0.82 for Sampdoria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Carrarese rate 0.63 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sampdoria rate 0.56 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Carrarese a 0.2% chance of the title and Sampdoria 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Carrarese the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Carrarese against 0.82 for Sampdoria. Carrarese's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.56 for Sampdoria.
How the model reaches 49% for Carrarese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Carrarese to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Carrarese's ratings take away 17 points and Sampdoria's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Carrarese's ratings25%−17
- Sampdoria's ratings49%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Carrarese at home · Sampdoria away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Carrarese 7, Sampdoria 8.
Carrarese score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Sampdoria have let in 2 there.
Sampdoria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Carrarese have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Carrarese
- vs Virtus Entella21 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
- at Vicenza Virtus24 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
Sampdoria
- vs Benevento21 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
- at Padova24 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
- vs Cremonese28 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.