Nautico Recife
vs
CRB
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Nautico Recife 2–1 CRB
The model makes it 40% Nautico Recife, 25% draw, 35% CRB — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nautico Recife 1.75, CRB 1.59.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Nautico Recife's rating is built from 34 Brazilian Serie B matches and CRB's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Nautico Recife are 15th on 43 points from 34 games; CRB are 6th on 55 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Nautico Recife are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Goias.
- CRB have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Londrina.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 July 2026, ended CRB 2–1 Nautico Recife.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nautico Recife vs CRB
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nautico Recife at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nautico Recife vs CRB
Nautico Recife
Serie B
- D0-0away to Goias19 October 2026
- L0-2Vila Nova11 October 2026
- L0-2Novorizontino8 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
CRB
Serie B
- W2-1Londrina24 October 2026
- L0-1Botafogo SP18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza EC12 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Goianiense7 October 2026
- L1-3away to São Bernardo2 October 2026
What these results say
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Nautico Recife had two goals or fewer.
- CRB conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- CRB scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 43 |
| 6 | CRB | 35 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 49 | +4 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Nautico Recife
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs CRB
- 16 July 2026CRB 2–1 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 24 March 2024Nautico Recife 1–1 CRBCopa do Nordeste
- 4 February 2023Nautico Recife 2–2 CRBCopa do Nordeste
- 10 August 2022Nautico Recife 2–1 CRBSerie B
- 27 April 2022CRB 1–2 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 28 September 2021Nautico Recife 1–3 CRBSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and CRB
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
CRB
GoalsAssists
- Mikael164
- Crystopher78
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nautico Recife carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.4 for CRB. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Nautico Recife and 1.59 for CRB. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nautico Recife rate 0.58 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CRB rate 0.74 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CRB, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nautico Recife the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Nautico Recife against 1.59 for CRB. Nautico Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.85 for CRB.
How the model reaches 40% for Nautico Recife to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nautico Recife to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Nautico Recife's ratings take away 26 points and CRB's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Nautico Recife's ratings18%−26
- CRB's ratings40%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nautico Recife at home · CRB away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Nautico Recife 34, CRB 35.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); CRB have let in 14 there.
CRB score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Nautico Recife
- at Londrina14 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
CRB
- vs Ceara14 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.