Vicenza Virtus
vs
Cremonese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Vicenza Virtus 1–0 Cremonese
The model makes it 48% Vicenza Virtus, 28% draw, 24% Cremonese — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vicenza Virtus 1.58, Cremonese 0.98.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Vicenza Virtus's rating is built from 8 Serie B matches and Cremonese's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 857 matches.
Key facts
- Vicenza Virtus are 12th on 9 points from 8 games; Cremonese are 18th on 6 points from 8 games — Serie B.
- Vicenza Virtus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Empoli.
- Cremonese have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Juve Stabia.
- Last 4 meetings: Vicenza Virtus 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2022, ended Cremonese 0–0 Vicenza Virtus.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vicenza Virtus at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B
- W2-0away to Empoli23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026
- L0-3Pisa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
Cremonese
Serie B
- L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Arezzo10 October 2026
- D0-0Virtus Entella19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cesena12 September 2026
What these results say
- Vicenza Virtus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cremonese did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vicenza Virtus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese
- 22 February 2022Cremonese 0–0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 26 September 2021Vicenza Virtus 0–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 2 March 2021Vicenza Virtus 3–1 CremoneseSerie B
- 7 November 2020Cremonese 0–1 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
Leading scorers: Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- N. Rauti22
- S. Merkaj21
Cremonese
GoalsAssists
- F. Bonazzoli31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vicenza Virtus carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.36 for Cremonese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Vicenza Virtus and 0.98 for Cremonese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vicenza Virtus rate 0.74 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cremonese rate 0.52 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vicenza Virtus a 0.3% chance of the title and Cremonese 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vicenza Virtus the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus against 0.98 for Cremonese. Vicenza Virtus's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.43 for Cremonese.
How the model reaches 48% for Vicenza Virtus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vicenza Virtus to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Vicenza Virtus's ratings take away 18 points and Cremonese's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Vicenza Virtus's ratings24%−18
- Cremonese's ratings48%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vicenza Virtus at home · Cremonese away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Vicenza VirtusCremonese
Vicenza Virtus are 12th after 8 Serie B matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Cremonese are 18th after 8 (between 13th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Vicenza Virtus 8, Cremonese 8.
Vicenza Virtus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cremonese have let in 2 there.
Cremonese score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Vicenza Virtus have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vicenza Virtus
- at Ascoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 17%
- vs Carrarese24 Nov · Serie Bwin 39%
- vs Cesena28 Nov · Serie Bwin 48%
Cremonese
- at Sudtirol21 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs Avellino24 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Sampdoria28 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.