Goias
vs
Ponte Preta
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Goias 2–0 Ponte Preta
The model makes it 70% Goias, 19% draw, 11% Ponte Preta — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Goias 2.49, Ponte Preta 0.70.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Goias are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Goias's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Ponte Preta's from 35, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Goias are 10th on 49 points from 34 games; Ponte Preta are bottom on 15 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Goias are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Nautico Recife.
- Ponte Preta have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Fortaleza EC.
- Last 6 meetings: Goias 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Ponte Preta 1–2 Goias.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Goias vs Ponte Preta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Goias at 70% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Goias vs Ponte Preta
Goias
Serie B
- D0-0Nautico Recife19 October 2026
- W2-0away to Operario-PR11 October 2026
- W2-1Athletic Club MG6 October 2026
- L0-3away to Novorizontino2 October 2026
- L0-1Atletico Goianiense26 September 2026
Ponte Preta
Serie B
- D2-2Fortaleza EC24 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Goianiense16 October 2026
- L1-5away to Novorizontino12 October 2026
- L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026
What these results say
- Ponte Preta did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 49 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 35 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 76 | -55 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Goias vs Ponte Preta
- 18 July 2026Ponte Preta 1–2 GoiasSerie B
- 17 August 2024Ponte Preta 1–1 GoiasSerie B
- 28 April 2024Goias 3–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 3 November 2021Goias 2–2 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 23 July 2021Ponte Preta 2–1 GoiasSerie B
- 21 September 2018Goias 2–2 Ponte PretaSerie B
Leading scorers: Goias and Ponte Preta
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu91
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Goias carry a model rating of 6.32 against 5.83 for Ponte Preta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.49 goals for Goias and 0.70 for Ponte Preta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Goias rate 0.54 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ponte Preta rate 0.37 and 2.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Goias the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Goias against 0.70 for Ponte Preta. Goias's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.84 for Ponte Preta.
How the model reaches 70% for Goias to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Goias to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Goias's ratings take away 25 points and Ponte Preta's ratings add 51 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Goias's ratings19%−25
- Ponte Preta's ratings70%+51
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Goias at home · Ponte Preta away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Goias 34, Ponte Preta 35.
Goias score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 17 there.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Goias have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Goias
- at Sport Recife14 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
Ponte Preta
- vs Operario-PR14 Nov · Serie Bwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.