Imisli FK
vs
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Imisli FK 1–0 Sumqayıt
The model makes it 36% Imisli FK, 28% draw, 36% Sumqayıt — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Imisli FK 1.34, Sumqayıt 1.32.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Imisli FK and Sumqayıt are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Imisli FK's rating is built from 40 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Sumqayıt's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Imisli FK are 10th on 7 points from 8 games; Sumqayıt are 8th on 8 points from 8 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Imisli FK have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Turan.
- Sumqayıt have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Zira.
- Last 3 meetings: Sumqayıt 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Imisli FK 0–2 Sumqayıt.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Imisli FK at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt
Imisli FK
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0Turan18 October 2026
- L0-2Qarabag11 October 2026
- L1-3away to Sabah FA19 September 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Qabala4 September 2026
Sumqayıt
Premyer Liqa
- L2-3away to Zira23 October 2026
- W2-1Araz16 October 2026
- W4-1Qabala10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kapaz20 September 2026
- D1-1Şamaxı FK12 September 2026
What these results say
- Imisli FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Imisli FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sumqayıt conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sumqayıt.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Imisli FK | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
| 8 | Sumqayıt | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Imisli FK vs Sumqayıt
- 25 April 2026Imisli FK 0–2 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
- 9 December 2025Sumqayıt 1–0 Imisli FKPremyer Liqa
- 13 September 2025Imisli FK 0–3 SumqayıtPremyer Liqa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Imisli FK carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.32 for Sumqayıt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Imisli FK and 1.32 for Sumqayıt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Imisli FK rate 0.43 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sumqayıt rate 0.66 and 1.92.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sumqayıt, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Imisli FK the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Imisli FK against 1.32 for Sumqayıt. Imisli FK's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.92 for Sumqayıt.
How the model reaches 36% for Imisli FK to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Imisli FK to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Imisli FK's ratings take away 30 points and Sumqayıt's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Imisli FK's ratings14%−30
- Sumqayıt's ratings36%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Imisli FK at home · Sumqayıt away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Imisli FK 8, Sumqayıt 8.
Imisli FK score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Sumqayıt have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Imisli FK
- vs Zira20 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 30%
- vs Safa Baku28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 46%
- vs Qabala5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 44%
Sumqayıt
- vs Sabah FA20 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Qarabag28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 12%
- vs Turan5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- at Şamaxı FK13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.