Sabah FA
vs
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Sabah FA 2–0 Şamaxı FK
The model makes it 73% Sabah FA, 18% draw, 9% Şamaxı FK — fair odds of 1.37, 5.56 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Sabah FA 2.55, Şamaxı FK 0.62.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Sabah FA are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sabah FA's rating is built from 40 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Şamaxı FK's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Sabah FA are top on 19 points from 7 games; Şamaxı FK are 7th on 13 points from 8 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Sabah FA are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Qabala.
- Şamaxı FK are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Safa Baku.
- Last 6 meetings: Sabah FA 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Şamaxı FK 0–3 Sabah FA.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabah FA at 73% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
Sabah FA
Premyer Liqa
- W4-0away to Qabala17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Neftchi Baku9 October 2026
- W3-1Imisli FK19 September 2026
- W3-0away to Safa Baku14 September 2026
- W5-0Zira5 September 2026
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
- W2-1Araz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Kapaz4 September 2026
What these results say
- Sabah FA went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabah FA scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah FA | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 1 | +17 | 19 |
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sabah FA vs Şamaxı FK
- 3 May 2026Şamaxı FK 0–3 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 23 November 2025Sabah FA 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 24 August 2025Şamaxı FK 1–2 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 9 May 2025Sabah FA 3–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 9 March 2025Şamaxı FK 1–0 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
- 22 December 2024Şamaxı FK 3–1 Sabah FAPremyer Liqa
A clear gap in the ratings
Sabah FA carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.35 for Şamaxı FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Sabah FA and 0.62 for Şamaxı FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabah FA rate 1.01 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Şamaxı FK rate 0.57 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabah FA a 73.5% chance of the title and Şamaxı FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabah FA the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Sabah FA against 0.62 for Şamaxı FK. Sabah FA's attack/defence rating is 1.01/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.55 for Şamaxı FK.
How the model reaches 73% for Sabah FA to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabah FA to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sabah FA's ratings add 3 points and Şamaxı FK's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 73%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sabah FA's ratings47%+3
- Şamaxı FK's ratings73%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sabah FA at home · Şamaxı FK away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Sabah FA 7, Şamaxı FK 8.
Sabah FA score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Şamaxı FK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sabah FA
- at Sumqayıt20 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 62%
- vs Barcelona25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
Şamaxı FK
- vs Turan21 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- vs Qabala28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 55%
- vs Kapaz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.