Uta Arad
vs
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti
The model makes it 44% Uta Arad, 28% draw, 28% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Uta Arad 1.47, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.05.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Uta Arad's rating is built from 51 Romanian Liga I matches and Petrolul Ploiesti's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Uta Arad are 10th on 15 points from 12 games; Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th on 23 points from 13 games — Liga I.
- Uta Arad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Petrolul Ploiesti have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to FC Botosani.
- Last 6 meetings: Uta Arad 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Uta Arad.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Uta Arad at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
Uta Arad
Liga I
- W1-0CFR 1907 Cluj18 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
- W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
Petrolul Ploiesti
Liga I
- W3-1away to FC Botosani23 October 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Farul Constanta11 October 2026
- W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
What these results say
- Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Petrolul Ploiesti conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Petrolul Ploiesti.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Uta Arad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti
- 3 May 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 8 December 2025Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 30 October 2025Uta Arad 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiCupa României
- 1 August 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 1–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 5 May 2025Uta Arad 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 15 February 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Uta AradLiga I
Leading scorers: Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman40
Petrolul Ploiesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Uta Arad carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.36 for Petrolul Ploiesti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Uta Arad and 1.05 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Uta Arad rate 0.62 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.60 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrolul Ploiesti, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Uta Arad a 0% chance of the title and Petrolul Ploiesti 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Uta Arad the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Uta Arad against 1.05 for Petrolul Ploiesti. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.59 for Petrolul Ploiesti.
How the model reaches 44% for Uta Arad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Uta Arad to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Uta Arad's ratings take away 21 points and Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Uta Arad's ratings22%−21
- Petrolul Ploiesti's ratings44%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Uta Arad at home · Petrolul Ploiesti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Uta AradPetrolul Ploiesti
Uta Arad are 10th after 12 Liga I matches (between 8th and 16th so far); Petrolul Ploiesti are 4th after 13 (between 2nd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Uta Arad 12, Petrolul Ploiesti 13.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Petrolul Ploiesti have let in 2 there.
Petrolul Ploiesti score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Uta Arad have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Uta Arad
- vs Universitatea Craiova21 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
- at Oțelul28 Nov · Liga Iwin 32%
- vs FC Voluntari5 Dec · Liga Iwin 57%
Petrolul Ploiesti
- at Dinamo Bucuresti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 15%
- vs Arges Pitesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 41%
- vs Universitatea Craiova5 Dec · Liga Iwin 22%
- at Oțelul12 Dec · Liga Iwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.