Arges Pitesti
vs
Uta Arad
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Arges Pitesti 1–0 Uta Arad
The model makes it 37% Arges Pitesti, 33% draw, 30% Uta Arad — fair odds of 2.70, 3.03 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 1.00, Uta Arad 0.85.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Arges Pitesti are 13th on 11 points from 11 games; Uta Arad are 12th on 12 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- Arges Pitesti have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CFR 1907 Cluj.
- Uta Arad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Botosani.
- Last 6 meetings: Arges Pitesti 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta Arad.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arges Pitesti at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad
Arges Pitesti
- L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
Uta Arad
- L0-2away to FC Botosani10 October 2026
- W1-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe18 September 2026
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
What these results say
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
- Uta Arad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Uta Arad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Arges Pitesti
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 33% today
Uta Arad
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Uta Arad
- 31 January 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 Uta AradLiga I
- 13 September 2025Uta Arad 3–3 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 8 May 2023Arges Pitesti 2–2 Uta AradLiga I
- 30 October 2022Uta Arad 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 16 July 2022Arges Pitesti 2–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 27 November 2021Uta Arad 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and Uta Arad
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Uta Arad
GoalsAssists
- M. Coman40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arges Pitesti carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.37 for Uta Arad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Arges Pitesti and 0.85 for Uta Arad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arges Pitesti rate 0.41 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Uta Arad rate 0.63 and 1.63.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Uta Arad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arges Pitesti the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 0.85 for Uta Arad. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.63 for Uta Arad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arges Pitesti at home · Uta Arad away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Arges PitestiUta Arad
Arges Pitesti are 13th after 11 Liga I matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Uta Arad are 11th after 11 (between 8th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Arges Pitesti 11, Uta Arad 11.
Arges Pitesti score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Uta Arad have let in 3 there.
Uta Arad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Arges Pitesti
- at Corvinul Hunedoara31 Oct · Liga Iwin 23%
- vs Dinamo Bucuresti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs FCSB21 Nov · Liga Iwin 35%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
Uta Arad
- at Dinamo Bucuresti31 Oct · Liga Iwin 16%
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti7 Nov · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs Universitatea Craiova21 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
- at Oțelul28 Nov · Liga Iwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.