FCSB
vs
Rapid
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FCSB 1–2 Rapid
The model makes it 34% FCSB, 28% draw, 38% Rapid — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FCSB 1.34, Rapid 1.45.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Rapid: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FCSB are 9th on 15 points from 11 games; Rapid are 2nd on 24 points from 11 games — Liga I.
- FCSB have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Oțelul.
- Rapid are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-3 win away to Universitatea Cluj.
- Last 6 meetings: FCSB 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 21 December 2025, ended FCSB 2–1 Rapid.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FCSB vs Rapid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rapid at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FCSB vs Rapid
FCSB
- W1-0Oțelul10 October 2026
- L0-5away to Universitatea Craiova19 September 2026
- D2-2Petrolul Ploiesti14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
- L1-3Uta Arad30 August 2026
Rapid
- W4-3away to Universitatea Cluj12 October 2026
- W3-1Arges Pitesti18 September 2026
- W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
What these results say
- FCSB failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapid went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rapid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rapid won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FCSB
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
Rapid
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 14% today
From our Liga I season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Rapid
- 21 December 2025FCSB 2–1 RapidLiga I
- 17 August 2025Rapid 2–2 FCSBLiga I
- 27 April 2025Rapid 1–2 FCSBLiga I
- 16 March 2025FCSB 3–3 RapidLiga I
- 2 March 2025Rapid 0–0 FCSBLiga I
- 27 October 2024FCSB 0–0 RapidLiga I
Leading scorers: FCSB and Rapid
FCSB
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Rapid
GoalsAssists
- F. Stojilković31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FCSB carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.62 for Rapid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for FCSB and 1.45 for Rapid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FCSB rate 0.72 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid rate 0.78 and 1.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FCSB a 0% chance of the title and Rapid 13.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FCSB against 1.45 for Rapid. FCSB's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.24 for Rapid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FCSB at home · Rapid away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FCSBRapid
FCSB are 7th after 11 Liga I matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Rapid are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: FCSB 11, Rapid 11.
Rapid score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FCSB have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FCSB
- at Universitatea Cluj31 Oct · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs Corvinul Hunedoara7 Nov · Liga Iwin 44%
- at Arges Pitesti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 33%
- vs Csikszereda28 Nov · Liga Iwin 62%
Rapid
- vs Csikszereda31 Oct · Liga Iwin 70%
- at Farul Constanta7 Nov · Liga Iwin 41%
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe21 Nov · Liga Iwin 44%
- vs FC Botosani28 Nov · Liga Iwin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.