FC Botosani
vs
Oțelul
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FC Botosani 1–0 Oțelul
The model makes it 45% FC Botosani, 28% draw, 27% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Botosani 1.53, Oțelul 1.08.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Botosani are 11th on 14 points from 13 games; Oțelul are 14th on 11 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- FC Botosani have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Oțelul have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Csikszereda.
- Last 6 meetings: Oțelul 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended FC Botosani 1–1 Oțelul.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Botosani vs Oțelul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Botosani at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Botosani vs Oțelul
FC Botosani
Liga I
- L1-3Petrolul Ploiesti23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti16 October 2026
- W2-0Uta Arad10 October 2026
- L1-3away to CFR 1907 Cluj19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti13 September 2026
Oțelul
Liga I
- D1-1Csikszereda16 October 2026
- L0-1away to FCSB10 October 2026
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Botosani failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Botosani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Botosani conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 | Oțelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Botosani vs Oțelul
- 25 April 2026FC Botosani 1–1 OțelulLiga I
- 2 February 2026FC Botosani 0–0 OțelulLiga I
- 14 September 2025Oțelul 0–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 14 April 2025FC Botosani 0–1 OțelulLiga I
- 8 November 2024Oțelul 0–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
- 15 July 2024FC Botosani 2–3 OțelulLiga I
Leading scorers: FC Botosani and Oțelul
FC Botosani
GoalsAssists
- A. Dumiter60
- S. Mailat42
Oțelul
GoalsAssists
- Patrick40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Botosani carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.32 for Oțelul. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for FC Botosani and 1.08 for Oțelul. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Botosani rate 0.61 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Oțelul rate 0.58 and 1.68.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Botosani the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Botosani against 1.08 for Oțelul. FC Botosani's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.68 for Oțelul.
How the model reaches 45% for FC Botosani to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Botosani to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, FC Botosani's ratings take away 23 points and Oțelul's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- FC Botosani's ratings20%−23
- Oțelul's ratings45%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Botosani at home · Oțelul away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC BotosaniOțelul
FC Botosani are 11th after 13 Liga I matches (between 2nd and 14th so far); Oțelul are 14th after 12 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: FC Botosani 13, Oțelul 12.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); FC Botosani have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Botosani
- vs FC Voluntari21 Nov · Liga Iwin 55%
- at Rapid28 Nov · Liga Iwin 17%
- vs Universitatea Cluj5 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
- at Corvinul Hunedoara12 Dec · Liga Iwin 30%
Oțelul
- at CFR 1907 Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 21%
- vs Uta Arad28 Nov · Liga Iwin 39%
- at Dinamo Bucuresti5 Dec · Liga Iwin 14%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.