Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
FC Voluntari
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 FC Voluntari
The model makes it 47% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, 29% draw, 24% FC Voluntari — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1.47, FC Voluntari 0.91.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's rating is built from 12 Romanian Liga I matches and FC Voluntari's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 12th on 14 points from 12 games; FC Voluntari are 15th on 8 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- FC Voluntari are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FCSB.
- Last 6 meetings: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 May 2026, ended FC Voluntari 2–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I
- D1-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti17 October 2026
- L0-2Dinamo Bucuresti9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 September 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
FC Voluntari
Liga I
- L1-2FCSB19 October 2026
- L2-3away to Corvinul Hunedoara9 October 2026
- L0-2Universitatea Cluj20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Rapid12 September 2026
- W1-0Arges Pitesti7 September 2026
What these results say
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Voluntari failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Voluntari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Voluntari conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs FC Voluntari
- 12 May 2026FC Voluntari 2–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga II
- 15 April 2026Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 FC VoluntariLiga II
- 4 November 2025FC Voluntari 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga II
- 4 March 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 4–0 FC VoluntariLiga I
- 27 October 2023FC Voluntari 0–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 9 December 2022Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–1 FC VoluntariLiga I
Leading scorers: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and FC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
FC Voluntari
GoalsAssists
- R. Guțea50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.18 for FC Voluntari. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and 0.91 for FC Voluntari. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.44 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Voluntari rate 0.57 and 2.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe against 0.91 for FC Voluntari. Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.23 for FC Voluntari.
How the model reaches 47% for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's ratings take away 26 points and FC Voluntari's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe's ratings17%−26
- FC Voluntari's ratings47%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at home · FC Voluntari away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheFC Voluntari
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe are 12th after 12 Liga I matches (between 6th and 13th so far); FC Voluntari are 15th after 12 (between 3rd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 12, FC Voluntari 12.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- vs Rapid21 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
- at Universitatea Cluj28 Nov · Liga Iwin 16%
- vs Corvinul Hunedoara5 Dec · Liga Iwin 38%
FC Voluntari
- at FC Botosani21 Nov · Liga Iwin 21%
- vs CFR 1907 Cluj28 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
- at Uta Arad5 Dec · Liga Iwin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.