FCSB
vs
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I prediction
Our model says: FCSB 1–0 Corvinul Hunedoara
The model makes it 51% FCSB, 26% draw, 23% Corvinul Hunedoara — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FCSB 1.77, Corvinul Hunedoara 0.99.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to FCSB: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FCSB's rating is built from 53 Romanian Liga I matches and Corvinul Hunedoara's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- FCSB are 6th on 18 points from 12 games; Corvinul Hunedoara are 9th on 16 points from 13 games — Liga I.
- FCSB have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Voluntari.
- Corvinul Hunedoara have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Universitatea Cluj.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FCSB vs Corvinul Hunedoara
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FCSB at 51% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FCSB vs Corvinul Hunedoara
FCSB
Liga I
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari19 October 2026
- W1-0Oțelul10 October 2026
- L0-5away to Universitatea Craiova19 September 2026
- D2-2Petrolul Ploiesti14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti5 September 2026
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I
- L0-3Universitatea Cluj23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rapid17 October 2026
- W3-2FC Voluntari9 October 2026
- W3-2away to Oțelul21 September 2026
- L0-1Universitatea Craiova13 September 2026
What these results say
- FCSB scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FCSB conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FCSB had three goals or more.
- Corvinul Hunedoara conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FCSB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 18 |
| 9 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FCSB vs Corvinul Hunedoara
- 4 July 2024FCSB 3–0 Corvinul HunedoaraSupercupa
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FCSB carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.31 for Corvinul Hunedoara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for FCSB and 0.99 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FCSB rate 0.74 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.54 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FCSB a 0.2% chance of the title and Corvinul Hunedoara 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FCSB the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for FCSB against 0.99 for Corvinul Hunedoara. FCSB's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.6 for Corvinul Hunedoara.
How the model reaches 51% for FCSB to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FCSB to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, FCSB's ratings take away 19 points and Corvinul Hunedoara's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- FCSB's ratings24%−19
- Corvinul Hunedoara's ratings51%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FCSB at home · Corvinul Hunedoara away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FCSBCorvinul Hunedoara
FCSB are 6th after 12 Liga I matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Corvinul Hunedoara are 9th after 13 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: FCSB 12, Corvinul Hunedoara 13.
Corvinul Hunedoara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); FCSB have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FCSB
- at Arges Pitesti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 32%
- vs Csikszereda28 Nov · Liga Iwin 62%
- at Farul Constanta5 Dec · Liga Iwin 33%
Corvinul Hunedoara
- at Csikszereda21 Nov · Liga Iwin 37%
- vs Farul Constanta28 Nov · Liga Iwin 40%
- at Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 Dec · Liga Iwin 29%
- vs FC Botosani12 Dec · Liga Iwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.