Arges Pitesti
vs
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Arges Pitesti 0–1 Dinamo Bucuresti
The model makes it 24% Arges Pitesti, 33% draw, 43% Dinamo Bucuresti — fair odds of 4.17, 3.03 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 0.73, Dinamo Bucuresti 1.13.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Bucuresti are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Arges Pitesti's rating is built from 52 Romanian Liga I matches and Dinamo Bucuresti's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- Arges Pitesti are 13th on 12 points from 12 games; Dinamo Bucuresti are top on 29 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- Arges Pitesti have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Universitatea Cluj.
- Dinamo Bucuresti are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to FC Botosani.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Dinamo Bucuresti 2–1 Arges Pitesti.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Bucuresti at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti
Liga I
- D2-2away to Universitatea Cluj19 October 2026
- L0-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
Dinamo Bucuresti
Liga I
- W2-0FC Botosani16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe9 October 2026
- W4-0Farul Constanta20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Csikszereda11 September 2026
- W2-1FCSB5 September 2026
What these results say
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti won every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Bucuresti scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 12 |
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti
- 10 May 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 2–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 4 April 2026Arges Pitesti 1–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 1 March 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 0–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 24 October 2025Arges Pitesti 1–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 3 June 2023Arges Pitesti 4–2 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 29 May 2023Dinamo Bucuresti 6–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and Dinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Bucuresti
GoalsAssists
- D. Armstrong510
- Martín Pascual50
- Alberto Soro42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arges Pitesti carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.71 for Dinamo Bucuresti. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.13 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arges Pitesti rate 0.45 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Bucuresti rate 0.82 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arges Pitesti a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Bucuresti 37.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 1.13 for Dinamo Bucuresti. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.08 for Dinamo Bucuresti.
How the model reaches 43% for Dinamo Bucuresti to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Dinamo Bucuresti to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Arges Pitesti's ratings add 21 points and Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings take away 7 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage29%−6
- Arges Pitesti's ratings50%+21
- Dinamo Bucuresti's ratings43%−7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arges Pitesti at home · Dinamo Bucuresti away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Arges PitestiDinamo Bucuresti
Arges Pitesti are 13th after 12 Liga I matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Dinamo Bucuresti are 1st after 12 (between 1st and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Arges Pitesti 12, Dinamo Bucuresti 12.
Arges Pitesti score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Dinamo Bucuresti have let in 0 there.
Dinamo Bucuresti score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Arges Pitesti have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arges Pitesti
- vs FCSB21 Nov · Liga Iwin 36%
- at Petrolul Ploiesti28 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- at Csikszereda5 Dec · Liga Iwin 36%
Dinamo Bucuresti
- vs Petrolul Ploiesti21 Nov · Liga Iwin 61%
- at Universitatea Craiova28 Nov · Liga Iwin 24%
- vs Oțelul5 Dec · Liga Iwin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.