Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
vs
Kryvbas KR
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2–1 Kryvbas KR
The model makes it 44% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 25% draw, 31% Kryvbas KR — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.86, Kryvbas KR 1.48.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's rating is built from 39 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Kryvbas KR's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 9th on 9 points from 9 games; Kryvbas KR are bottom on 5 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Karpaty.
- Kryvbas KR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to LNZ Cherkasy.
- Last 2 meetings: Kryvbas KR 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Kryvbas KR 2–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League
- D2-2away to Karpaty18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Kolos Kovalivka10 October 2026
- L0-2Livyi Bereh19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dynamo Kyiv14 September 2026
- D0-0Bukovyna6 September 2026
Kryvbas KR
Premier League
- L0-3LNZ Cherkasy18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
- D2-2Kolos Kovalivka5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chornomorets30 August 2026
- D1-1Livyi Bereh15 August 2026
What these results say
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR
- 21 March 2026Kryvbas KR 2–1 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPremier League
- 21 September 2025Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4–5 Kryvbas KRPremier League
Leading scorers: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
GoalsAssists
- A. Kozak23
- V. Sydun20
- Carlos Rojas20
Kryvbas KR
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.35 for Kryvbas KR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.48 for Kryvbas KR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi rate 0.57 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kryvbas KR rate 0.71 and 2.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi against 1.48 for Kryvbas KR. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/2.01 for Kryvbas KR.
How the model reaches 44% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ratings take away 26 points and Kryvbas KR's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ratings18%−26
- Kryvbas KR's ratings44%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home · Kryvbas KR away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 9, Kryvbas KR 7.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Kryvbas KR have let in 2 there.
Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- at Chornomorets21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs LNZ Cherkasy28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Polessya5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 12%
Kryvbas KR
- vs Kudrivka21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs FC Kharkiv25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Veres Rivne28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.