Bukovyna
vs
Kolos Kovalivka
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bukovyna 0–1 Kolos Kovalivka
The model makes it 33% Bukovyna, 30% draw, 37% Kolos Kovalivka — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bukovyna 1.15, Kolos Kovalivka 1.24.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 958 settled matches.
Edge to Kolos Kovalivka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bukovyna's rating is built from 9 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Kolos Kovalivka's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bukovyna are 11th on 8 points from 9 games; Kolos Kovalivka are 8th on 11 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Bukovyna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Kudrivka.
- Kolos Kovalivka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Veres Rivne.
- Last 4 meetings: Kolos Kovalivka 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 November 2016, ended Bukovyna 2–3 Kolos Kovalivka.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bukovyna vs Kolos Kovalivka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kolos Kovalivka at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bukovyna vs Kolos Kovalivka
Bukovyna
Premier League
- L1-4away to Kudrivka17 October 2026
- D2-2Polessya11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026
- D1-1Zorya Luhansk13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi6 September 2026
Kolos Kovalivka
Premier League
- W2-0away to Veres Rivne23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk17 October 2026
- W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026
- L0-2Karpaty11 September 2026
What these results say
- Bukovyna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bukovyna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bukovyna vs Kolos Kovalivka
- 20 November 2016Bukovyna 2–3 Kolos KovalivkaPersha Liga
- 6 August 2016Kolos Kovalivka 3–1 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 1 June 2016Kolos Kovalivka 2–2 BukovynaDruha Liga - Group A
- 18 October 2015Bukovyna 2–0 Kolos KovalivkaDruha Liga - Group A
Leading scorers: Bukovyna and Kolos Kovalivka
Bukovyna
GoalsAssists
- V. Dakhnovskyi20
Kolos Kovalivka
GoalsAssists
- A. Tahiri20
- D. Ndukwe20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bukovyna carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.44 for Kolos Kovalivka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Bukovyna and 1.24 for Kolos Kovalivka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bukovyna rate 0.51 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kolos Kovalivka rate 0.61 and 1.39.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kolos Kovalivka the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bukovyna against 1.24 for Kolos Kovalivka. Bukovyna's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.39 for Kolos Kovalivka.
How the model reaches 37% for Kolos Kovalivka to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kolos Kovalivka to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Bukovyna's ratings add 31 points and Kolos Kovalivka's ratings take away 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Bukovyna's ratings60%+31
- Kolos Kovalivka's ratings37%−23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bukovyna at home · Kolos Kovalivka away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bukovyna 9, Kolos Kovalivka 9.
Kolos Kovalivka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Bukovyna have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bukovyna
- at Veres Rivne21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 6%
- vs Chornomorets5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
Kolos Kovalivka
- vs FC Kharkiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Livyi Bereh28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at LNZ Cherkasy5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.