Universidad de Concepcion
vs
O'Higgins
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Concepcion 0–1 O'Higgins
The model makes it 34% Universidad de Concepcion, 31% draw, 35% O'Higgins — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Universidad de Concepcion 1.06, O'Higgins 1.11.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Universidad de Concepcion and O'Higgins are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Universidad de Concepcion's rating is built from 24 Chilean Primera División matches and O'Higgins's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 23 points from 24 games; O'Higgins are 13th on 28 points from 25 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Concepcion are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cobresal.
- O'Higgins are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cobresal.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de Concepcion.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
Has the model earned this number?
It puts O'Higgins at 35% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
Universidad de Concepcion
Primera División
- D1-1away to Cobresal10 October 2026
- L0-2Huachipato2 October 2026
- L1-2away to Palestino6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Coquimbo Unido2 September 2026
- W2-1Universidad de Chile30 August 2026
O'Higgins
Primera División
- D1-1Cobresal24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026
- W2-1Union La Calera6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Universidad Catolica1 September 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Concepcion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Concepcion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- O'Higgins conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- O'Higgins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 23 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Concepcion vs O'Higgins
- 16 May 2026O'Higgins 0–1 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 20 January 2021O'Higgins 0–0 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 24 September 2020Universidad de Concepcion 1–4 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 13 October 2019O'Higgins 1–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
- 26 May 2019Universidad de Concepcion 1–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 2 November 2018O'Higgins 4–2 Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Concepcion and O'Higgins
Universidad de Concepcion
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
O'Higgins
GoalsAssists
- A. Castillo80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad de Concepcion carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.33 for O'Higgins. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.11 for O'Higgins. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad de Concepcion rate 0.41 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; O'Higgins rate 0.54 and 1.55.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives O'Higgins the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion against 1.11 for O'Higgins. Universidad de Concepcion's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.55 for O'Higgins.
How the model reaches 35% for O'Higgins to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for O'Higgins to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Universidad de Concepcion's ratings add 34 points and O'Higgins's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Universidad de Concepcion's ratings63%+34
- O'Higgins's ratings35%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad de Concepcion at home · O'Higgins away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Concepcion 24, O'Higgins 25.
Universidad de Concepcion score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); O'Higgins have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Concepcion
- vs Nublense22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- at Union La Calera29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- vs Universidad Catolica6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 23%
O'Higgins
- vs Universidad de Chile22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 24%
- at Everton de Vina29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Coquimbo Unido6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.