Universidad de Chile
vs
Cobresal
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad de Chile 2–0 Cobresal
The model makes it 67% Universidad de Chile, 20% draw, 13% Cobresal — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 2.50, Cobresal 0.86.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Universidad de Chile are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Universidad de Chile's rating is built from 54 Chilean Primera División matches and Cobresal's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- Universidad de Chile are 2nd on 45 points from 24 games; Cobresal are 14th on 26 points from 25 games — Primera División.
- Universidad de Chile are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-0 win at home to Nublense.
- Cobresal are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to O'Higgins.
- Last 6 meetings: Cobresal 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Cobresal 1–0 Universidad de Chile.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad de Chile at 67% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal
Universidad de Chile
Primera División
- W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
- W4-2Coquimbo Unido6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad de Concepcion30 August 2026
- L1-2Colo Colo23 August 2026
Cobresal
Primera División
- D1-1away to O'Higgins24 October 2026
- D1-1Universidad de Concepcion10 October 2026
- W3-2Coquimbo Unido12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Deportes Limache7 September 2026
- W2-0Palestino28 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad de Chile scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.
- Cobresal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cobresal conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 45 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal
- 17 May 2026Cobresal 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 4 August 2025Universidad de Chile 0–1 CobresalPrimera División
- 2 March 2025Cobresal 2–1 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 21 July 2024Cobresal 3–3 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 25 March 2024Universidad de Chile 2–2 CobresalPrimera División
- 3 December 2023Cobresal 4–3 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
Leading scorers: Universidad de Chile and Cobresal
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas93
- A. Arce63
Cobresal
GoalsAssists
- S. Pino81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universidad de Chile carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.33 for Cobresal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.50 goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.86 for Cobresal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad de Chile rate 0.84 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cobresal rate 0.63 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad de Chile a 4.3% chance of the title and Cobresal 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad de Chile the highest probability at 67%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Universidad de Chile against 0.86 for Cobresal. Universidad de Chile's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.78 for Cobresal.
How the model reaches 67% for Universidad de Chile to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad de Chile to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universidad de Chile's ratings take away 7 points and Cobresal's ratings add 30 points, which lands on the published 67%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Universidad de Chile's ratings37%−7
- Cobresal's ratings67%+30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad de Chile at home · Cobresal away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad de Chile 24, Cobresal 24.
Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Cobresal have let in 10 there.
Cobresal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Universidad de Chile have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Universidad de Chile
- at O'Higgins22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
- at Concepción29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 42%
- vs Union La Calera6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
Cobresal
- vs Audax Italiano22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
- at Nublense29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Colo Colo6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.