Spaeri
vs
Dinamo Batumi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Spaeri 1–2 Dinamo Batumi
The model makes it 26% Spaeri, 25% draw, 49% Dinamo Batumi — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Spaeri 1.25, Dinamo Batumi 1.93.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Dinamo Batumi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Spaeri's rating is built from 32 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dinamo Batumi's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 517 matches.
Key facts
- Spaeri are 9th on 27 points from 30 games; Dinamo Batumi are top on 56 points from 30 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Spaeri have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Gagra.
- Dinamo Batumi are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Samgurali.
- Last 3 meetings: Dinamo Batumi 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Dinamo Batumi 3–0 Spaeri.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0Gagra23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 199913 September 2026
Dinamo Batumi
Erovnuli Liga
- W3-0Samgurali24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Gagra17 October 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Tbilisi11 October 2026
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spaeri conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 27 |
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 53 | 37 | +16 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi
- 30 August 2026Dinamo Batumi 3–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 21 May 2026Spaeri 3–3 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Dinamo Batumi 4–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
The two sides
Spaeri carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.33 for Dinamo Batumi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Spaeri and 1.93 for Dinamo Batumi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spaeri rate 0.47 in attack and 2.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Batumi rate 0.63 and 1.79.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spaeri a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Batumi 38.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.93 for Dinamo Batumi. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.79 for Dinamo Batumi.
How the model reaches 49% for Dinamo Batumi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Batumi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Spaeri's ratings add 46 points and Dinamo Batumi's ratings take away 29 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Spaeri's ratings78%+46
- Dinamo Batumi's ratings49%−29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spaeri at home · Dinamo Batumi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Spaeri 30, Dinamo Batumi 30.
Spaeri score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Dinamo Batumi have let in 10 there.
Dinamo Batumi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Spaeri have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spaeri
- vs FC Iberia 199915 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 25%
- vs Meshakhte21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 44%
- at Rustavi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 21%
- at Dila5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 23%
Dinamo Batumi
- vs Rustavi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 40%
- vs Dila25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 46%
- at FC Iberia 199930 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 31%
- at Torpedo Kutaisi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.