Dila
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dila 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 33% Dila, 27% draw, 40% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Dila 1.32, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.49.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Dinamo Tbilisi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Dila's rating is built from 66 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dinamo Tbilisi's from 66, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 517 matches.
Key facts
- Dila are 5th on 40 points from 30 games; Dinamo Tbilisi are 2nd on 54 points from 30 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dila are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Meshakhte.
- Dinamo Tbilisi have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Rustavi.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Tbilisi 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Dila.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila
Erovnuli Liga
- L1-2away to Meshakhte24 October 2026
- L0-2FC Iberia 199919 October 2026
- L1-3away to Rustavi10 October 2026
- W4-1away to Spaeri21 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0away to Rustavi23 October 2026
- W3-1Spaeri18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Iberia 19994 October 2026
- W3-2away to Samgurali19 September 2026
What these results say
- Dila conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dila failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dila scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 40 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi
- 31 August 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 1 July 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–0 DilaSuper Cup
- 20 May 2026Dila 0–0 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 3 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 1–2 DilaErovnuli Liga
- 6 December 2025Dila 2–2 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 3 October 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–0 DilaErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Dila and Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dila carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.38 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Dila and 1.49 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dila rate 0.57 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.61 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dila a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 33.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dila against 1.49 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Dila's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.56 for Dinamo Tbilisi.
How the model reaches 40% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Dila's ratings add 34 points and Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings take away 26 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Dila's ratings66%+34
- Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings40%−26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dila at home · Dinamo Tbilisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dila 30, Dinamo Tbilisi 30.
Dila score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 3 there.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Dila have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dila
- at Gagra20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 45%
- at Dinamo Batumi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
- vs Samgurali30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- vs Spaeri5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 53%
Dinamo Tbilisi
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 48%
- at Gagra24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- at Meshakhte29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 53%
- vs Samgurali5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.