Union La Calera
vs
Huachipato
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Union La Calera 1–0 Huachipato
The model makes it 36% Union La Calera, 29% draw, 35% Huachipato — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Union La Calera 1.26, Huachipato 1.22.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Union La Calera and Huachipato are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Union La Calera's rating is built from 52 Chilean Primera División matches and Huachipato's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 671 matches.
Key facts
- Union La Calera are bottom on 18 points from 24 games; Huachipato are 10th on 32 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Union La Calera have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Concepción.
- Huachipato are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Audax Italiano.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Huachipato 3–1 Union La Calera.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union La Calera vs Huachipato
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union La Calera at 36% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union La Calera vs Huachipato
Union La Calera
Primera División
- D1-1away to Concepción11 October 2026
- W1-0Deportes Limache14 September 2026
- L1-2away to O'Higgins6 September 2026
- L0-1Deportes La Serena31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Audax Italiano22 August 2026
Huachipato
Primera División
- D1-1away to Audax Italiano23 October 2026
- W2-0O'Higgins10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Universidad de Concepcion2 October 2026
- D0-0Colo Colo6 September 2026
- L1-3Deportes Limache22 August 2026
What these results say
- Union La Calera failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Union La Calera had two goals or fewer.
- Huachipato scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Huachipato had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union La Calera | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 18 |
| 10 | Huachipato | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union La Calera vs Huachipato
- 17 May 2026Huachipato 3–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 9 August 2025Huachipato 1–0 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 7 March 2025Union La Calera 1–0 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 29 July 2024Union La Calera 2–1 HuachipatoPrimera División
- 25 February 2024Huachipato 0–1 Union La CaleraPrimera División
- 6 October 2023Union La Calera 2–4 HuachipatoPrimera División
Leading scorers: Union La Calera and Huachipato
Union La Calera
GoalsAssists
- S. Sáez81
Huachipato
GoalsAssists
- L. Altamirano91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Union La Calera carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.35 for Huachipato. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Union La Calera and 1.22 for Huachipato. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union La Calera rate 0.45 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Huachipato rate 0.62 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Huachipato, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union La Calera the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Union La Calera against 1.22 for Huachipato. Union La Calera's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.67 for Huachipato.
How the model reaches 36% for Union La Calera to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Union La Calera to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Union La Calera's ratings take away 28 points and Huachipato's ratings add 20 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Union La Calera's ratings16%−28
- Huachipato's ratings36%+20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union La Calera at home · Huachipato away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Union La Calera 22, Huachipato 24.
Huachipato score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Union La Calera have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Union La Calera
- at Palestino22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Universidad de Concepcion29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 44%
- at Universidad de Chile6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 11%
Huachipato
- vs Concepción22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
- at Universidad Catolica29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 19%
- vs Nublense6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.