Universidad Catolica
vs
Universidad de Chile
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica 2–1 Universidad de Chile
The model makes it 37% Universidad Catolica, 27% draw, 36% Universidad de Chile — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 1.51, Universidad de Chile 1.50.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Universidad Catolica and Universidad de Chile are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica are 3rd on 42 points from 23 games; Universidad de Chile are 2nd on 45 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- Universidad Catolica are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Palestino.
- Universidad de Chile are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 6-0 win at home to Nublense.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad de Chile 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Universidad de Chile 1–0 Universidad Catolica.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universidad Catolica at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile
Universidad Catolica
- W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Everton de Vina5 September 2026
- W3-2O'Higgins1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Coquimbo Unido26 August 2026
- L1-2Nublense23 August 2026
Universidad de Chile
- W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
- W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026
- W4-2Coquimbo Unido6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Universidad de Concepcion30 August 2026
- L1-2Colo Colo23 August 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universidad de Chile scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Universidad de Chile had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 42 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile
- 25 April 2026Universidad de Chile 1–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 26 October 2025Universidad Catolica 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 3 May 2025Universidad de Chile 1–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 19 October 2024Universidad Catolica 1–2 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
- 18 May 2024Universidad de Chile 1–2 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
- 26 January 2024Universidad Catolica 1–3 Universidad de ChileFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Universidad de Chile
Universidad Catolica
GoalsAssists
- F. Zampedri222
- J. Giani74
Universidad de Chile
GoalsAssists
- E. Vargas93
- A. Arce63
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Universidad Catolica carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.72 for Universidad de Chile. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Universidad Catolica and 1.50 for Universidad de Chile. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universidad Catolica rate 0.83 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universidad de Chile rate 0.84 and 1.09.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universidad de Chile, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Universidad Catolica a 2.7% chance of the title and Universidad de Chile 3.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Universidad Catolica against 1.50 for Universidad de Chile. Universidad Catolica's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.09 for Universidad de Chile.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica at home · Universidad de Chile away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Universidad Catolica 23, Universidad de Chile 24.
Universidad Catolica score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Universidad de Chile have let in 3 there.
Universidad de Chile score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Universidad Catolica have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica
- vs Deportes Limache8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 54%
- at Colo Colo22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 28%
- vs Huachipato29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 59%
Universidad de Chile
- vs Cobresal8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
- at O'Higgins22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 48%
- at Concepción29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Union La Calera6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 68%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.