Regular Season - 31 · 1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Gagra vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction

David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi

Our model says: Gagra 0–1 Rustavi

The model makes it 23% Gagra, 31% draw, 46% Rustavi — fair odds of 4.35, 3.23 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).

Expected goals: Gagra 0.75, Rustavi 1.29.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.

Model confidence: Medium.

One-sided: Rustavi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Key facts

  • Gagra are 8th on 29 points from 29 games; Rustavi are 2nd on 49 points from 28 games — Erovnuli Liga.
  • Gagra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Dinamo Batumi.
  • Rustavi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Dila.
  • Last 6 meetings: Gagra 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Rustavi 3–0 Gagra.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gagra vs Rustavi

39%
Both teams to score
33%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gagra win Draw Rustavi win
  1. 0–116%
  2. 0–014%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 0–211%
  5. 1–09%
  6. 1–28%
  7. 2–15%

Scores read Gagra first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 24%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rustavi at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gagra vs Rustavi

Gagra

  • L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026
  • D1-1Meshakhte19 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Dinamo Tbilisi14 September 2026
  • D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026

Rustavi

  • W3-1Dila10 October 2026
  • L0-2FC Iberia 199921 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Meshakhte14 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Gagra did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Gagra conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rustavi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Rustavi had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Gagra29611122643-1729
2Rustavi2814773524+1149

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Gagra vs Rustavi

  • 22 August 2026Rustavi 3–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 16 May 2026Gagra 1–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 15 March 2026Rustavi 1–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 1 November 2021Gagra 2–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
  • 10 September 2021Rustavi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga 2
  • 24 May 2021Gagra 3–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2

The two sides

Gagra carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.34 for Rustavi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects a tight, low-scoring game

Under the hood the model expects 0.75 goals for Gagra and 1.29 for Rustavi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Gagra rate 0.37 in attack and 2.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rustavi rate 0.47 and 1.36.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gagra a 0% chance of the title and Rustavi 21.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Gagra against 1.29 for Rustavi. Gagra's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.36 for Rustavi.

Season stats

GagraRustavi
29Matches28
6W 11D 12LRecord14W 7D 7L
26 0.9 per gameGoals scored35 1.3 per game
43 1.5 per gameGoals conceded24 0.9 per game
4 of 29Clean sheets11 of 28
10 of 29Failed to score6 of 28
3 of 4Penalties scored3 of 3
52 1.8 per gameYellow cards50 1.8 per game
3Red cards0
4-4-2 4×Usual shape4-3-3 4×

Gagra at home · Rustavi away

15Played14
3W 7D 5LRecord4W 7D 3L
16–19Goals for – against14–13
3 of 15Clean sheets4 of 14

League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Gagra 29, Rustavi 28.

Gagra scored 344647
Rustavi conceded 123846

Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Rustavi have let in 6 there.

Rustavi scored 567278
Gagra conceded 10562711

Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Gagra have let in 11 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Gagra

  • at FC Iberia 19999 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 18%
  • vs Dila20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 24%
  • vs Dinamo Tbilisi24 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 22%
  • at Torpedo Kutaisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 20%

Rustavi

  • vs Samgurali7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 50%
  • at Dinamo Batumi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
  • vs Meshakhte25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 56%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.