Dinamo Batumi
vs
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Batumi 2–0 Meshakhte
The model makes it 60% Dinamo Batumi, 24% draw, 16% Meshakhte — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Batumi 1.95, Meshakhte 0.76.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Dinamo Batumi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Dinamo Batumi are top on 53 points from 29 games; Meshakhte are bottom on 17 points from 29 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Dinamo Batumi are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Gagra.
- Meshakhte have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Samgurali.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Batumi 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Meshakhte 0–1 Dinamo Batumi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Batumi vs Meshakhte
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Batumi vs Meshakhte
Dinamo Batumi
- W3-1away to Gagra17 October 2026
- W1-0Dinamo Tbilisi11 October 2026
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
Meshakhte
- L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gagra19 September 2026
- L0-1Rustavi14 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi10 September 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Batumi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Meshakhte had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 37 | +13 | 53 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Batumi vs Meshakhte
- 21 August 2026Meshakhte 0–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2026Dinamo Batumi 2–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 16 March 2026Meshakhte 0–0 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
- 14 August 2024Meshakhte 1–2 Dinamo BatumiDavid Kipiani Cup
- 13 November 2011Meshakhte 1–3 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga 2
- 9 September 2011Dinamo Batumi 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
The two sides
Dinamo Batumi carry a model rating of 6.3 against 5.92 for Meshakhte. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Dinamo Batumi and 0.76 for Meshakhte. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Batumi rate 0.61 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Meshakhte rate 0.32 and 2.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Batumi a 42.6% chance of the title and Meshakhte 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dinamo Batumi against 0.76 for Meshakhte. Dinamo Batumi's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/2.14 for Meshakhte.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Batumi at home · Meshakhte away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Batumi 29, Meshakhte 29.
Dinamo Batumi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Meshakhte have let in 7 there.
Meshakhte score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Dinamo Batumi have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Batumi
- at Spaeri8 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 47%
- vs Rustavi21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 38%
- vs Dila25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
- at FC Iberia 199930 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
Meshakhte
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi7 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 23%
- at Spaeri21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 25%
- at Rustavi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 16%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.