O'Higgins
vs
Nublense
Primera División prediction
Our model says: O'Higgins 1–0 Nublense
The model makes it 47% O'Higgins, 27% draw, 26% Nublense — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: O'Higgins 1.62, Nublense 1.07.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- O'Higgins are 13th on 27 points from 24 games; Nublense are 9th on 32 points from 24 games — Primera División.
- O'Higgins have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Huachipato.
- Nublense have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to Universidad de Chile.
- Last 6 meetings: O'Higgins 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 July 2026, ended O'Higgins 1–0 Nublense.
More Chilean Primera División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: O'Higgins vs Nublense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts O'Higgins at 47% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into O'Higgins vs Nublense
O'Higgins
- L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026
- W2-1Union La Calera6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Universidad Catolica1 September 2026
- L0-1Palestino23 August 2026
Nublense
- L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Deportes La Serena6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Deportes Limache3 September 2026
- L0-1Concepción30 August 2026
What these results say
- O'Higgins conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- O'Higgins failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nublense did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Nublense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 27 |
| 9 | Nublense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: O'Higgins vs Nublense
- 13 July 2026O'Higgins 1–0 NublenseCopa De La Liga
- 9 July 2026Nublense 2–1 O'HigginsCopa De La Liga
- 25 April 2026Nublense 0–2 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 8 November 2025O'Higgins 4–2 NublensePrimera División
- 25 May 2025Nublense 0–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 19 October 2024O'Higgins 1–3 NublensePrimera División
Leading scorers: O'Higgins and Nublense
O'Higgins
GoalsAssists
- A. Castillo80
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
O'Higgins carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.28 for Nublense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for O'Higgins and 1.07 for Nublense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
O'Higgins rate 0.56 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nublense rate 0.55 and 1.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nublense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives O'Higgins the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for O'Higgins against 1.07 for Nublense. O'Higgins's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.73 for Nublense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
O'Higgins at home · Nublense away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: O'Higgins 24, Nublense 24.
O'Higgins score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Nublense have let in 8 there.
Nublense score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); O'Higgins have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
O'Higgins
- at Universidad de Concepcion8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 36%
- vs Universidad de Chile22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
- at Everton de Vina29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Coquimbo Unido6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 35%
Nublense
- vs Colo Colo8 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 27%
- at Universidad de Concepcion22 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 34%
- vs Cobresal29 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 43%
- at Huachipato6 Dec · Primera Divisiónwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.