SV Wehen
vs
Havelse
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SV Wehen 2–0 Havelse
The model makes it 57% SV Wehen, 24% draw, 19% Havelse — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: SV Wehen 2.05, Havelse 0.99.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
Edge to SV Wehen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. SV Wehen's rating is built from 48 3. Liga matches and Havelse's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- SV Wehen are 13th on 12 points from 10 games; Havelse are bottom on 6 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- SV Wehen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Havelse have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to SV Meppen.
- Last 4 meetings: SV Wehen 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended SV Wehen 1–4 Havelse.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Wehen vs Havelse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Wehen at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SV Wehen vs Havelse
SV Wehen
3. Liga
- D0-0away to SSV Jahn Regensburg17 October 2026
- W3-0Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- W4-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0411 October 2026
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
Havelse
3. Liga
- D1-1away to SV Meppen18 October 2026
- D2-2Würzburger Kickers13 October 2026
- L0-5away to SSV Jahn Regensburg10 October 2026
- L1-3Fortuna Köln25 September 2026
- L1-2away to MSV Duisburg15 September 2026
What these results say
- SV Wehen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Havelse did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Havelse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Havelse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SV Wehen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Wehen vs Havelse
- 8 April 2026SV Wehen 1–4 Havelse3. Liga
- 1 November 2025Havelse 0–2 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 26 January 2022Havelse 0–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 22 August 2021SV Wehen 2–1 Havelse3. Liga
Leading scorers: SV Wehen and Havelse
SV Wehen
GoalsAssists
- G. Fechner20
- L. Schleimer12
- R. Kalem12
Havelse
GoalsAssists
- K. Okyere Wriedt20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SV Wehen carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.02 for Havelse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.05 goals for SV Wehen and 0.99 for Havelse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Wehen rate 0.48 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Havelse rate 0.49 and 2.62.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Wehen a 0.4% chance of the title and Havelse 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Wehen the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.05 expected goals for SV Wehen against 0.99 for Havelse. SV Wehen's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.62 for Havelse.
How the model reaches 57% for SV Wehen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SV Wehen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, SV Wehen's ratings take away 28 points and Havelse's ratings add 41 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- SV Wehen's ratings16%−28
- Havelse's ratings57%+41
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Wehen at home · Havelse away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SV Wehen 10, Havelse 10.
SV Wehen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Havelse have let in 6 there.
Havelse score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); SV Wehen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SV Wehen
- at FC Saarbrücken22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs SV Meppen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 46%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 29%
Havelse
- vs FC Viktoria Köln20 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
- at Hansa Rostock27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 16%
- at Alemannia Aachen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.