FC Viktoria Köln
vs
Verl
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 Verl
The model makes it 49% FC Viktoria Köln, 26% draw, 25% Verl — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Viktoria Köln 1.81, Verl 1.14.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Viktoria Köln are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games; Verl are 12th on 11 points from 8 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Viktoria Köln are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-2 win away to Alemannia Aachen.
- Verl are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
- Last 5 meetings: Verl 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Verl 2–0 FC Viktoria Köln.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Viktoria Köln at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
FC Viktoria Köln
- W5-2away to Alemannia Aachen11 October 2026
- W3-0FC Ingolstadt 0419 September 2026
- W3-1away to SV Meppen15 September 2026
- W4-0Hansa Rostock11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen5 September 2026
Verl
- D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Waldhof Mannheim5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Viktoria Köln won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Viktoria Köln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Viktoria Köln had three goals or more.
- Verl went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 18 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Viktoria Köln
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
Verl
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl
- 18 April 2026Verl 2–0 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
- 22 November 2025FC Viktoria Köln 1–5 Verl3. Liga
- 22 February 2025Verl 1–1 FC Viktoria Köln3. Liga
- 7 January 2025FC Viktoria Köln 1–3 VerlFriendlies Clubs
- 22 September 2024FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 Verl3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Viktoria Köln carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.33 for Verl. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.14 for Verl. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Viktoria Köln rate 0.65 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Verl rate 0.60 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Viktoria Köln a 22% chance of the title and Verl 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Viktoria Köln the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln against 1.14 for Verl. FC Viktoria Köln's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.71 for Verl.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Viktoria Köln at home · Verl away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Viktoria Köln 8, Verl 8.
FC Viktoria Köln score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Verl have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Viktoria Köln
- at Hoffenheim II31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs FC Saarbrücken6 Nov · 3. Ligawin 53%
- at Havelse20 Nov · 3. Ligawin 52%
Verl
- vs SV Wehen31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 52%
- at Stuttgart II8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.