Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 Alemannia Aachen
The model makes it 46% Rot-Weiß Essen, 26% draw, 28% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.77, Alemannia Aachen 1.28.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Rot-Weiß Essen's rating is built from 49 3. Liga matches and Alemannia Aachen's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Rot-Weiß Essen are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games; Alemannia Aachen are 8th on 14 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Rot-Weiß Essen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Alemannia Aachen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hansa Rostock.
- Last 5 meetings: Alemannia Aachen 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Alemannia Aachen 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga
- W1-0SSV Jahn Regensburg23 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
- W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga
- W2-0Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026
- L2-5FC Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
What these results say
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rot-Weiß Essen had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 21 |
| 8 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Alemannia Aachen
- 8 February 2026Alemannia Aachen 3–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 31 August 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 2–3 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 19 January 2025Alemannia Aachen 2–0 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 3 August 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 1–2 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 16 July 2022Alemannia Aachen 1–3 Rot-Weiß EssenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rot-Weiß Essen and Alemannia Aachen
Rot-Weiß Essen
GoalsAssists
- M. Janssen20
Alemannia Aachen
GoalsAssists
- L. Scepanik30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rot-Weiß Essen carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.32 for Alemannia Aachen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.28 for Alemannia Aachen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alemannia Aachen rate 0.62 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 9.5% chance of the title and Alemannia Aachen 3.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 1.28 for Alemannia Aachen. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.78 for Alemannia Aachen.
How the model reaches 46% for Rot-Weiß Essen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rot-Weiß Essen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings take away 25 points and Alemannia Aachen's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Rot-Weiß Essen's ratings19%−25
- Alemannia Aachen's ratings46%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rot-Weiß Essen at home · Alemannia Aachen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Rot-Weiß Essen 11, Alemannia Aachen 10.
Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 1 there.
Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rot-Weiß Essen
- at Verl21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
- vs Hoffenheim II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 51%
- at SV Meppen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
- vs MSV Duisburg12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 38%
Alemannia Aachen
- vs Waldhof Mannheim21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at FC Saarbrücken28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs Havelse5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 65%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.