FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf
The model makes it 45% FC Ingolstadt 04, 30% draw, 25% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.36, Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.89.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Ingolstadt 04's rating is built from 48 3. Liga matches and Fortuna Düsseldorf's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Fortuna Düsseldorf are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rot-Weiß Essen.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to FC Saarbrücken.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Düsseldorf 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 March 2022, ended Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Ingolstadt 04 at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
FC Ingolstadt 04
3. Liga
- W1-0Rot-Weiß Essen17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
- L2-4SV Wehen11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga
- L1-3FC Saarbrücken17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
- D2-2Verl11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Ingolstadt 04 had three goals or more.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Düsseldorf had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 6 March 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
- 25 September 2021FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 12 September 2020FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 Fortuna DusseldorfDFB Pokal
- 22 April 2018Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 FC Ingolstadt 042. Bundesliga
- 19 November 2017FC Ingolstadt 04 1–0 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 17 April 2015FC Ingolstadt 04 3–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and Fortuna Düsseldorf
FC Ingolstadt 04
GoalsAssists
- O. Ugondu20
Fortuna Düsseldorf
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.21 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 0.89 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.52 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Düsseldorf rate 0.43 and 1.61.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 1.3% chance of the title and Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 0.89 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.61 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
How the model reaches 45% for FC Ingolstadt 04 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Ingolstadt 04 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings take away 27 points and Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings add 28 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- FC Ingolstadt 04's ratings17%−27
- Fortuna Düsseldorf's ratings45%+28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · Fortuna Düsseldorf away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 10, Fortuna Düsseldorf 10.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 2 there.
Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Ingolstadt 04
- at Stuttgart II22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at Verl5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 27%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 48%
- at Würzburger Kickers28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 30%
- vs SV Wehen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.