FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 MSV Duisburg
The model makes it 33% FC Ingolstadt 04, 27% draw, 40% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.32, MSV Duisburg 1.53.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to MSV Duisburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are 13th on 11 points from 9 games; MSV Duisburg are top on 24 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Waldhof Mannheim.
- MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to FC Saarbrücken.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Ingolstadt 04 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 March 2026, ended FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 MSV Duisburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MSV Duisburg at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
FC Ingolstadt 04
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
- L2-4SV Wehen11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
MSV Duisburg
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf12 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Ingolstadt 04 had three goals or more.
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Ingolstadt 04
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
MSV Duisburg
Chance to win the league · 51% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg
- 4 March 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 27 September 2025MSV Duisburg 2–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 20 April 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 11 November 2023MSV Duisburg 1–2 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 12 May 2023FC Ingolstadt 04 2–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 12 November 2022MSV Duisburg 0–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
The two sides
FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.45 for MSV Duisburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.53 for MSV Duisburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.52 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MSV Duisburg rate 0.70 and 1.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 0.3% chance of the title and MSV Duisburg 51.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 1.53 for MSV Duisburg. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.56 for MSV Duisburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · MSV Duisburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 8, MSV Duisburg 9.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); MSV Duisburg have let in 0 there.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Ingolstadt 04
- at Havelse31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 41%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 36%
- at Stuttgart II22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
MSV Duisburg
- vs Stuttgart II31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 63%
- at Preußen Münster7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Hansa Rostock22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.