Waldhof Mannheim
vs
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Waldhof Mannheim 1–0 Fortuna Köln
The model makes it 42% Waldhof Mannheim, 32% draw, 26% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.21, Fortuna Köln 0.84.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Waldhof Mannheim's rating is built from 48 3. Liga matches and Fortuna Köln's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Waldhof Mannheim are 11th on 13 points from 10 games; Fortuna Köln are 19th on 10 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Waldhof Mannheim have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Würzburger Kickers.
- Fortuna Köln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stuttgart II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waldhof Mannheim at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Waldhof Mannheim vs Fortuna Köln
Waldhof Mannheim
3. Liga
- L0-2away to Würzburger Kickers17 October 2026
- L0-3FC Ingolstadt 0414 October 2026
- W5-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10 October 2026
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga
- L0-1Stuttgart II16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rot-Weiß Essen13 October 2026
- D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
What these results say
- Waldhof Mannheim conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Waldhof Mannheim and Fortuna Köln
Waldhof Mannheim
GoalsAssists
- J. Ulbricht20
- N. X. Muteba NTumba20
Fortuna Köln
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waldhof Mannheim carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.18 for Fortuna Köln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Waldhof Mannheim and 0.84 for Fortuna Köln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waldhof Mannheim rate 0.51 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Köln rate 0.34 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Waldhof Mannheim a 0.1% chance of the title and Fortuna Köln 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waldhof Mannheim the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Waldhof Mannheim against 0.84 for Fortuna Köln. Waldhof Mannheim's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.34/1.46 for Fortuna Köln.
How the model reaches 42% for Waldhof Mannheim to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Waldhof Mannheim to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Waldhof Mannheim's ratings take away 31 points and Fortuna Köln's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Waldhof Mannheim's ratings13%−31
- Fortuna Köln's ratings42%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waldhof Mannheim at home · Fortuna Köln away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Waldhof Mannheim 10, Fortuna Köln 10.
Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Fortuna Köln have let in 2 there.
Fortuna Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Waldhof Mannheim
- at Alemannia Aachen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Stuttgart II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at MSV Duisburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 16%
Fortuna Köln
- vs SV Meppen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at FC Viktoria Köln29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 18%
- vs Hansa Rostock5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.