Galatasaray
vs
Amed
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Galatasaray 2–1 Amed
The model makes it 53% Galatasaray, 22% draw, 25% Amed — fair odds of 1.89, 4.55 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Galatasaray 2.42, Amed 1.53.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Galatasaray's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Amed's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 721 matches.
Key facts
- Galatasaray are top on 19 points from 8 games; Amed are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Galatasaray have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gençlerbirliği S.K..
- Amed are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Konyaspor.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 January 2015, ended Galatasaray 0–2 Amed.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Galatasaray vs Amed
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Galatasaray at 53% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Galatasaray vs Amed
Galatasaray
Süper Lig
- W1-0away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.17 October 2026
- W3-1Kasımpaşa9 October 2026
- L0-4away to Trabzonspor19 September 2026
- W1-0Kocaelispor13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Başakşehir4 September 2026
Amed
Süper Lig
- W1-0Konyaspor17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.10 October 2026
- W3-2Beşiktaş20 September 2026
- W5-0Başakşehir13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kasımpaşa6 September 2026
What these results say
- Galatasaray won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Galatasaray scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Amed went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Amed scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Amed had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 19 |
| 2 | Amed | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Galatasaray vs Amed
- 22 January 2015Galatasaray 0–2 AmedTürkiye Kupası
- 23 December 2014Amed 1–4 GalatasarayTürkiye Kupası
Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Amed
Galatasaray
GoalsAssists
- V. Osimhen63
- Gabriel Sara22
Amed
GoalsAssists
- G. Orban72
- D. Sabia41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Galatasaray carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.86 for Amed. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Galatasaray and 1.53 for Amed. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Galatasaray rate 1.27 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Amed rate 1.16 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Galatasaray a 34% chance of the title and Amed 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Galatasaray the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Galatasaray against 1.53 for Amed. Galatasaray's attack/defence rating is 1.27/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/1.15 for Amed.
How the model reaches 53% for Galatasaray to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Galatasaray to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Galatasaray's ratings add 8 points and Amed's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Galatasaray's ratings51%+8
- Amed's ratings53%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Galatasaray at home · Amed away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GalatasarayAmed
Galatasaray are 1st after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Amed are 2nd after 8 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Galatasaray 8, Amed 8.
Galatasaray score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Amed have let in 3 there.
Amed score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Galatasaray have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Galatasaray
- vs Samsunspor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 75%
- vs Aston Villa24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 47%
Amed
- vs Rizespor21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 61%
- at Gaziantep FK28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 51%
- vs Alanyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.