Hansa Rostock
vs
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Hansa Rostock 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf
The model makes it 42% Hansa Rostock, 27% draw, 31% Fortuna Düsseldorf — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 1.57, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Hansa Rostock are 4th on 15 points from 9 games; Fortuna Düsseldorf are 6th on 14 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Hansa Rostock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to SV Meppen.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Preußen Münster.
- Last 6 meetings: Fortuna Düsseldorf 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2024, ended Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–0 Hansa Rostock.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hansa Rostock at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Hansa Rostock
- L0-2SV Meppen13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Würzburger Kickers10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen20 September 2026
- W3-2Stuttgart II16 September 2026
- L0-4away to FC Viktoria Köln11 September 2026
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
- D2-2Verl11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
What these results say
- Hansa Rostock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Düsseldorf had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hansa Rostock
Chance to finish in the top four · 29% today
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Chance to finish in the top four · 41% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 25 February 2024Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–0 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
- 16 September 2023Hansa Rostock 1–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 19 March 2023Hansa Rostock 2–5 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
- 10 September 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–1 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
- 8 April 2022Fortuna Dusseldorf 3–0 Hansa Rostock2. Bundesliga
- 31 October 2021Hansa Rostock 2–1 Fortuna Dusseldorf2. Bundesliga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hansa Rostock carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.37 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.29 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hansa Rostock rate 0.63 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Düsseldorf rate 0.58 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hansa Rostock a 4% chance of the title and Fortuna Düsseldorf 6.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hansa Rostock the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Hansa Rostock against 1.29 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Hansa Rostock's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.53 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hansa Rostock at home · Fortuna Düsseldorf away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Hansa Rostock 9, Fortuna Düsseldorf 9.
Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 5 there.
Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hansa Rostock have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hansa Rostock
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 60%
- at MSV Duisburg22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Havelse27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 66%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- vs SV Meppen30 Oct · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at FC Ingolstadt 047 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 60%
- at Würzburger Kickers28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.