Eyüpspor
vs
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Eyüpspor 0–1 Kocaelispor
The model makes it 25% Eyüpspor, 30% draw, 45% Kocaelispor — fair odds of 4.00, 3.33 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Eyüpspor 0.84, Kocaelispor 1.33.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
One-sided: Kocaelispor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Eyüpspor's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Kocaelispor's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 721 matches.
Key facts
- Eyüpspor are bottom on 3 points from 8 games; Kocaelispor are 6th on 15 points from 9 games — Süper Lig.
- Eyüpspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Erzurumspor FK.
- Kocaelispor have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Alanyaspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Kocaelispor 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Eyüpspor 0–1 Kocaelispor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kocaelispor at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Erzurumspor FK17 October 2026
- L0-4Göztepe12 October 2026
- L0-8away to Fenerbahçe20 September 2026
- L0-2Rizespor12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Çorum FK6 September 2026
Kocaelispor
Süper Lig
- W2-1away to Alanyaspor23 October 2026
- L1-2Göztepe18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
What these results say
- Eyüpspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Eyüpspor failed to score in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eyüpspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kocaelispor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 3 |
| 6 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor
- 9 March 2026Eyüpspor 0–1 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 4 October 2025Kocaelispor 1–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 20 January 2024Kocaelispor 2–1 Eyüpspor1. Lig
- 21 August 2023Eyüpspor 2–0 Kocaelispor1. Lig
- 14 May 2022Eyüpspor 2–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig
- 19 December 2021Kocaelispor 1–1 Eyüpspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Kocaelispor
GoalsAssists
- B. Kutlu41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Eyüpspor carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.66 for Kocaelispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Eyüpspor and 1.33 for Kocaelispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eyüpspor rate 0.52 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kocaelispor rate 0.63 and 0.97.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kocaelispor the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Eyüpspor against 1.33 for Kocaelispor. Eyüpspor's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/0.97 for Kocaelispor.
How the model reaches 45% for Kocaelispor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kocaelispor to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Eyüpspor's ratings add 31 points and Kocaelispor's ratings take away 16 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Eyüpspor's ratings61%+31
- Kocaelispor's ratings45%−16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Eyüpspor at home · Kocaelispor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EyüpsporKocaelispor
Eyüpspor are 18th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Kocaelispor are 6th after 9 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Eyüpspor 8, Kocaelispor 9.
Kocaelispor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Eyüpspor have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Eyüpspor
- at Trabzonspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 7%
- vs Başakşehir29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 17%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 21%
Kocaelispor
- vs Fenerbahçe21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 22%
- at Çorum FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Erzurumspor FK6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.