Stuttgart II
vs
Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Stuttgart II 2–1 Alemannia Aachen
The model makes it 38% Stuttgart II, 26% draw, 36% Alemannia Aachen — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.68, Alemannia Aachen 1.60.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Stuttgart II and Alemannia Aachen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stuttgart II are 11th on 11 points from 9 games; Alemannia Aachen are 12th on 11 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Stuttgart II are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Hoffenheim II.
- Alemannia Aachen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to SV Wehen.
- Last 6 meetings: Alemannia Aachen 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Alemannia Aachen 3–1 Stuttgart II.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stuttgart II vs Alemannia Aachen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stuttgart II at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stuttgart II vs Alemannia Aachen
Stuttgart II
- W3-2Hoffenheim II13 October 2026
- D1-1away to SV Meppen10 October 2026
- D3-3SSV Jahn Regensburg19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Hansa Rostock16 September 2026
- L1-2Preußen Münster13 September 2026
Alemannia Aachen
- L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026
- L2-5FC Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg12 September 2026
What these results say
- Stuttgart II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stuttgart II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Stuttgart II.
- Alemannia Aachen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alemannia Aachen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Alemannia Aachen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stuttgart II
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today
Alemannia Aachen
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stuttgart II vs Alemannia Aachen
- 11 April 2026Alemannia Aachen 3–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 9 November 2025Stuttgart II 1–3 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 3 May 2025Stuttgart II 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
- 7 December 2024Alemannia Aachen 2–1 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 11 May 2013Alemannia Aachen 4–2 Stuttgart II3. Liga
- 17 November 2012Stuttgart II 2–1 Alemannia Aachen3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stuttgart II carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.3 for Alemannia Aachen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Stuttgart II and 1.60 for Alemannia Aachen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stuttgart II rate 0.56 in attack and 2.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alemannia Aachen rate 0.61 and 1.84.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stuttgart II a 0.2% chance of the title and Alemannia Aachen 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stuttgart II the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Stuttgart II against 1.60 for Alemannia Aachen. Stuttgart II's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.84 for Alemannia Aachen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stuttgart II at home · Alemannia Aachen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Stuttgart II 9, Alemannia Aachen 8.
Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Stuttgart II have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stuttgart II
- at MSV Duisburg31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 16%
- vs Verl8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- vs FC Ingolstadt 0422 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at Waldhof Mannheim28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
Alemannia Aachen
- vs Preußen Münster1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 52%
- at FC Saarbrücken28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.