Preußen Münster
vs
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Preußen Münster 1–2 MSV Duisburg
The model makes it 29% Preußen Münster, 24% draw, 47% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Preußen Münster 1.44, MSV Duisburg 1.96.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,131 settled matches.
One-sided: MSV Duisburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Preußen Münster's rating is built from 10 3. Liga matches and MSV Duisburg's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Preußen Münster are 12th on 12 points from 10 games; MSV Duisburg are top on 25 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Preußen Münster have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
- MSV Duisburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC Viktoria Köln.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 February 2024, ended Preussen Munster 3–1 MSV Duisburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MSV Duisburg at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg
Preußen Münster
3. Liga
- L2-3away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach17 October 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- D3-3Rot-Weiß Essen9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Waldhof Mannheim20 September 2026
- D3-3FC Saarbrücken16 September 2026
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga
- D1-1FC Viktoria Köln18 October 2026
- W4-2away to FC Saarbrücken13 October 2026
- W3-2Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 12 |
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 12 | +15 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg
- 23 February 2024Preussen Munster 3–1 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 30 September 2023MSV Duisburg 0–0 Preussen Munster3. Liga
- 13 July 2021MSV Duisburg 2–3 Preussen MunsterFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg
Preußen Münster
GoalsAssists
- F. Higl31
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- P. Remmert30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Preußen Münster carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.45 for MSV Duisburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Preußen Münster and 1.96 for MSV Duisburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preußen Münster rate 0.57 in attack and 2.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MSV Duisburg rate 0.69 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preußen Münster a 0.1% chance of the title and MSV Duisburg 51.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Preußen Münster against 1.96 for MSV Duisburg. Preußen Münster's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.55 for MSV Duisburg.
How the model reaches 47% for MSV Duisburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MSV Duisburg to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Preußen Münster's ratings add 41 points and MSV Duisburg's ratings take away 23 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Preußen Münster's ratings70%+41
- MSV Duisburg's ratings47%−23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preußen Münster at home · MSV Duisburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Preußen Münster 10, MSV Duisburg 10.
Preußen Münster score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); MSV Duisburg have let in 0 there.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Preußen Münster have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Preußen Münster
- at Hoffenheim II21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs Verl28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 37%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 23%
MSV Duisburg
- vs Hansa Rostock22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 62%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.