Safa Baku
vs
Qabala
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Safa Baku 1–0 Qabala
The model makes it 41% Safa Baku, 29% draw, 30% Qabala — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Safa Baku 1.35, Qabala 1.06.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Safa Baku's rating is built from 11 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Qabala's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Safa Baku are 11th on 5 points from 11 games; Qabala are 10th on 8 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Safa Baku have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Araz.
- Qabala have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Zira.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Qabala 0–1 Safa Baku.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Safa Baku vs Qabala
Has the model earned this number?
Safa Baku at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Safa Baku vs Qabala
Safa Baku
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2Araz7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Sumqayıt2 November 2026
- L1-2Kapaz24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Şamaxı FK16 October 2026
- L0-1Turan11 October 2026
Qabala
Premyer Liqa
- L1-2away to Zira7 November 2026
- D0-0Qarabag31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Araz23 October 2026
- L0-4Sabah FA17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Sumqayıt10 October 2026
What these results say
- Safa Baku did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Safa Baku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qabala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qabala had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Safa Baku | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
| 10 | Qabala | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Safa Baku
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 64% today
Qabala
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 37% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Safa Baku vs Qabala
- 22 August 2026Qabala 0–1 Safa BakuPremyer Liqa
- 4 December 2025Qabala 2–1 Safa BakuCup
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Qabala (10th, with Safa Baku 11th), while our numbers lean to Safa Baku. Safa Baku rate 0.46 in attack and 2.00 in defence, Qabala 0.44 and 1.81 (lower is better in defence), so Safa Baku have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Safa Baku the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Safa Baku against 1.06 for Qabala. Safa Baku's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.81 for Qabala.
How the model reaches 41% for Safa Baku to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Safa Baku to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Safa Baku's ratings take away 1 point and Qabala's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Safa Baku's ratings42%−1
- Qabala's ratings41%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Safa Baku at home · Qabala away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Safa Baku 11, Qabala 11.
Safa Baku score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Qabala have let in 0 there.
Qabala score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Safa Baku have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Safa Baku
- at Imisli FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- vs Neftchi Baku5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 18%
- at Sabah FA13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 6%
- vs Qarabag19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 16%
- at Turan23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 14%
Qabala
- at Şamaxı FK28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 20%
- at Imisli FK5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 26%
- vs Kapaz13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 36%
- at Neftchi Baku19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 10%
- vs Sumqayıt23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.