Şamaxı FK
vs
Turan
Premyer Liqa prediction
Our model says: Şamaxı FK 0–1 Turan
The model makes it 34% Şamaxı FK, 30% draw, 36% Turan — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Şamaxı FK 1.16, Turan 1.21.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Şamaxı FK and Turan are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Şamaxı FK's rating is built from 44 Azerbaijan Premier League matches and Turan's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Şamaxı FK are 7th on 14 points from 11 games; Turan are 2nd on 21 points from 11 games — Premyer Liqa.
- Şamaxı FK are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Sabah FA.
- Turan are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Qarabag.
- Last 6 meetings: Turan 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Turan 0–0 Şamaxı FK.
More Azerbaijan Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Şamaxı FK vs Turan
Has the model earned this number?
Turan at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Şamaxı FK vs Turan
Şamaxı FK
Premyer Liqa
- D2-2away to Sabah FA8 November 2026
- L2-3Neftchi Baku1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Imisli FK25 October 2026
- W3-2Safa Baku16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zira10 October 2026
Turan
Premyer Liqa
- W1-0away to Qarabag6 November 2026
- W3-2Sabah FA30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Neftchi Baku24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Imisli FK18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Safa Baku11 October 2026
What these results say
- Şamaxı FK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Şamaxı FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Şamaxı FK.
- Turan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Turan had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premyer Liqa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Şamaxı FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 14 |
| 2 | Turan | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Şamaxı FK
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
Turan
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
From our Premyer Liqa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Şamaxı FK vs Turan
- 23 August 2026Turan 0–0 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 16 May 2026Şamaxı FK 3–2 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 16 February 2026Şamaxı FK 0–0 TuranPremyer Liqa
- 2 November 2025Turan 2–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 25 April 2025Turan 1–1 Şamaxı FKPremyer Liqa
- 23 February 2025Şamaxı FK 0–1 TuranPremyer Liqa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Şamaxı FK a 0% chance of the title and Turan 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Turan the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Şamaxı FK against 1.21 for Turan. Şamaxı FK's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.13 for Turan.
How the model reaches 36% for Turan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Turan to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Şamaxı FK's ratings add 5 points and Turan's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Şamaxı FK's ratings33%+5
- Turan's ratings36%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Şamaxı FK at home · Turan away
League matches only, Premyer Liqa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premyer Liqa matches this season: Şamaxı FK 11, Turan 11.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Şamaxı FK
- vs Qabala28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 55%
- vs Kapaz5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 48%
- vs Sumqayıt13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 49%
- at Araz19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- vs Zira23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 41%
Turan
- vs Kapaz28 Nov · Premyer Liqawin 53%
- at Sumqayıt5 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 39%
- vs Araz13 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 63%
- at Zira19 Dec · Premyer Liqawin 33%
- vs Safa Baku23 Jan · Premyer Liqawin 62%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.