Regular Season - 12 · 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Hellas Verona vs Cesena Serie B prediction

Verona

Our model says: Hellas Verona 1–0 Cesena

The model makes it 55% Hellas Verona, 25% draw, 20% Cesena — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.88, Cesena 0.92.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Hellas Verona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Hellas Verona's rating is built from 11 Serie B matches and Cesena's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 889 matches.

Key facts

  • Hellas Verona are 7th on 16 points from 11 games; Cesena are 11th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie B.
  • Hellas Verona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mantova.
  • Cesena are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Catanzaro.
  • Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 August 2024, ended Hellas Verona 1–2 Cesena.

More Serie B predictions

All Serie B predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hellas Verona vs Cesena

52%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hellas Verona win Draw Cesena win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Hellas Verona first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Hellas Verona at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Hellas Verona vs Cesena

Hellas Verona

Serie B

  • D0-0away to Mantova7 November 2026
  • W3-0Carrarese1 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Juve Stabia28 October 2026
  • D1-1Pisa25 October 2026
  • D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026

Cesena

Serie B

  • W1-0Catanzaro7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Sudtirol31 October 2026
  • W2-1Empoli27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Modena24 October 2026
  • D1-1Avellino18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Hellas Verona went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Hellas Verona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cesena conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Hellas Verona114431913+616
11Cesena113621214-215

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Hellas Verona

Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today

Win 15%
Draw 10%
Defeat 9%

Cesena

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today

Win 7%
Draw 12%
Defeat 16%

From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Hellas Verona vs Cesena

  • 10 August 2024Hellas Verona 1–2 CesenaCoppa Italia
  • 18 May 2017Cesena 0–0 Hellas VeronaSerie B
  • 30 December 2016Hellas Verona 3–0 CesenaSerie B
  • 4 April 2015Hellas Verona 3–3 CesenaSerie A
  • 3 November 2014Cesena 1–1 Hellas VeronaSerie A

Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Cesena

Hellas Verona

GoalsAssists

  • D. Mosquera70

Cesena

GoalsAssists

  • C. Shpendi81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hellas Verona a 4.6% chance of the title and Cesena 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Hellas Verona v Cesena has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 58% / 23% / 19% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Hellas Verona's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Hellas Verona win55%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Cesena win20%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Hellas Verona Cesena
0.85 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.25 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.49
1.88 Model expected goals (this match) 0.92

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Hellas Verona against 0.92 for Cesena. Hellas Verona's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.49 for Cesena.

Hellas Verona carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.42 for Cesena.

How the model reaches 55% for Hellas Verona to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hellas Verona to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Hellas Verona's ratings add 7 points and Cesena's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Hellas Verona's ratings49%+7
  4. Cesena's ratings55%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Hellas VeronaCesena
11Matches11
4W 4D 3LRecord3W 6D 2L
19 1.7 per gameGoals scored12 1.1 per game
13 1.2 per gameGoals conceded14 1.3 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11
1 of 11Failed to score2 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
21 1.9 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game
2Red cards2
4-2-3-1 4×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Hellas Verona at home · Cesena away

6Played5
3W 2D 1LRecord1W 2D 2L
14–6Goals for – against4–8
2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie B matches this season: Hellas Verona 11, Cesena 11.

Hellas Verona scored 162344
Cesena conceded 033052

Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Cesena have let in 3 there.

Cesena scored 043212
Hellas Verona conceded 210422

Cesena score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Hellas Verona have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Hellas Verona

Cesena

  • vs Ascoli24 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
  • at Vicenza Virtus28 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
  • vs Carrarese5 Dec · Serie Bwin 40%
  • at Arezzo8 Dec · Serie Bwin 36%
  • vs Palermo12 Dec · Serie Bwin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.