Kasımpaşa
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kasımpaşa 1–0 Alanyaspor
The model makes it 53% Kasımpaşa, 27% draw, 20% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.67, Alanyaspor 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Kasımpaşa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kasımpaşa's rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Alanyaspor's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Kasımpaşa are 5th on 20 points from 11 games; Alanyaspor are 13th on 12 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Kasımpaşa are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Gaziantep FK.
- Alanyaspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Trabzonspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Kasımpaşa 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Kasımpaşa 1–0 Alanyaspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
Kasımpaşa at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig
- W2-0away to Gaziantep FK6 November 2026
- D2-2Beşiktaş1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Eyüpspor24 October 2026
- W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- L0-2Trabzonspor8 November 2026
- L0-5away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.2 November 2026
- L1-2Kocaelispor23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
What these results say
- Kasımpaşa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kasımpaşa
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Alanyaspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
- 19 April 2026Kasımpaşa 1–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 23 November 2025Alanyaspor 1–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 15 March 2025Kasımpaşa 2–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 20 October 2024Alanyaspor 1–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 4 February 2024Kasımpaşa 2–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 17 September 2023Alanyaspor 3–3 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Alanyaspor
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak72
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kasımpaşa a 0.3% chance of the title and Alanyaspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Kasımpaşa against 0.83 for Alanyaspor. Kasımpaşa's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.29 for Alanyaspor.
How the model reaches 53% for Kasımpaşa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Kasımpaşa to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Kasımpaşa's ratings add 6 points and Alanyaspor's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Kasımpaşa's ratings47%+6
- Alanyaspor's ratings53%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kasımpaşa at home · Alanyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
KasımpaşaAlanyaspor
Kasımpaşa are 5th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Alanyaspor are 13th after 11 (between 3rd and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kasımpaşa 11, Alanyaspor 11.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Alanyaspor have let in 3 there.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kasımpaşa have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kasımpaşa
- at Rizespor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- vs Göztepe7 Dec · Süper Ligwin 42%
- at Erzurumspor FK12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Fenerbahçe18 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Kocaelispor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 31%
Alanyaspor
- vs Konyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 37%
- at Amed5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 14%
- vs Samsunspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 43%
- at Galatasaray19 Dec · Süper Ligwin 10%
- vs Başakşehir17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.