Stal Mielec
vs
Ruch Chorzów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Mielec 1–2 Ruch Chorzów
The model makes it 31% Stal Mielec, 26% draw, 43% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stal Mielec 1.36, Ruch Chorzów 1.68.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Ruch Chorzów: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Stal Mielec's rating is built from 46 Polish I Liga matches and Ruch Chorzów's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stal Mielec are 13th on 13 points from 12 games; Ruch Chorzów are 7th on 18 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Stal Mielec have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Chrobry Głogów.
- Ruch Chorzów are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Odra Opole.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Ruch Chorzów 2–1 Stal Mielec.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ruch Chorzów at 43% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów
Stal Mielec
I Liga
- D0-0Chrobry Głogów24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
- W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
Ruch Chorzów
I Liga
- W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
- W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom18 September 2026
- D3-3Podbeskidzie12 September 2026
- W3-1Unia Skierniewice7 September 2026
What these results say
- Stal Mielec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stal Mielec had three goals or more.
- Ruch Chorzów went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ruch Chorzów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów
- 14 March 2026Ruch Chorzów 2–1 Stal MielecI Liga
- 31 August 2025Stal Mielec 2–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 10 March 2024Stal Mielec 3–1 Ruch ChorzówEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2023Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
The two sides
Stal Mielec carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.39 for Ruch Chorzów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.68 for Ruch Chorzów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stal Mielec rate 0.56 in attack and 2.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ruch Chorzów rate 0.59 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Mielec a 0.2% chance of the title and Ruch Chorzów 15.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ruch Chorzów the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Stal Mielec against 1.68 for Ruch Chorzów. Stal Mielec's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.49 for Ruch Chorzów.
How the model reaches 43% for Ruch Chorzów to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ruch Chorzów to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Stal Mielec's ratings add 42 points and Ruch Chorzów's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Stal Mielec's ratings71%+42
- Ruch Chorzów's ratings43%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stal Mielec at home · Ruch Chorzów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Mielec 12, Ruch Chorzów 11.
Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Ruch Chorzów have let in 0 there.
Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stal Mielec
- at Polonia Warszawa21 Nov · I Ligawin 19%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice28 Nov · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Arka Gdynia5 Dec · I Ligawin 39%
- vs Unia Skierniewice12 Dec · I Ligawin 45%
Ruch Chorzów
- vs Warta Poznań21 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
- at Arka Gdynia28 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice5 Dec · I Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.