Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
The model makes it 32% Pogoń Siedlce, 30% draw, 38% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Pogoń Siedlce 1.11, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.24.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Edge to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Pogoń Siedlce's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Pogoń Siedlce are 14th on 12 points from 11 games; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are top on 21 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Pogoń Siedlce are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Stal Rzeszów.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Polonia Warszawa.
- Last 6 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Pogoń Siedlce.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Pogoń Siedlce
I Liga
- L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
- L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
I Liga
- L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
- W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
What these results say
- Pogoń Siedlce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Siedlce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 |
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- 11 July 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–2 Pogoń SiedlceFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0–2 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 4 October 2025Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
- 17 February 2024Pogoń Siedlce 1–3 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
- 4 February 2023Pogoń Siedlce 3–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
- 9 July 2022Pogoń Siedlce 2–0 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Pogoń Siedlce carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.34 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.24 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogoń Siedlce rate 0.43 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki rate 0.57 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogoń Siedlce a 0% chance of the title and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 16%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce against 1.24 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. Pogoń Siedlce's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.58 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
How the model reaches 38% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Pogoń Siedlce's ratings add 36 points and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings take away 27 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Pogoń Siedlce's ratings65%+36
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings38%−27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pogoń Siedlce at home · Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Pogoń Siedlce 11, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 11.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Pogoń Siedlce have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pogoń Siedlce
- at Unia Skierniewice22 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- at Warta Poznań28 Nov · I Ligawin 19%
- vs Miedz Legnica5 Dec · I Ligawin 31%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- vs Arka Gdynia21 Nov · I Ligawin 48%
- at Podbeskidzie28 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Odra Opole5 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.