Gent
vs
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Gent 2–0 Kortrijk
The model makes it 72% Gent, 20% draw, 8% Kortrijk — fair odds of 1.39, 5.00 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Gent 2.25, Kortrijk 0.48.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Gent are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Gent's rating is built from 49 Jupiler Pro League matches and Kortrijk's from 8, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Gent are top on 22 points from 8 games; Kortrijk are 17th on 3 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Zulte Waregem.
- Kortrijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Genk.
- Last 6 meetings: Gent 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 March 2025, ended Gent 1–2 Kortrijk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gent vs Kortrijk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 72% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 378 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Gent vs Kortrijk
Gent
Jupiler Pro League
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
- L0-3away to RAAL La Louvière13 September 2026
- L0-2Zulte Waregem6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Anderlecht3 September 2026
What these results say
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 22 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gent vs Kortrijk
- 16 March 2025Gent 1–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 28 July 2024Kortrijk 0–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 26 December 2023Kortrijk 0–2 GentJupiler Pro League
- 30 July 2023Gent 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 15 January 2023Gent 2–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 13 November 2022Kortrijk 0–4 GentJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Gent and Kortrijk
Gent
GoalsAssists
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega30
Kortrijk
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Gent carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.33 for Kortrijk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Gent and 0.48 for Kortrijk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 0.96 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kortrijk rate 0.49 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gent a 6.6% chance of the title and Kortrijk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 72%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Gent against 0.48 for Kortrijk. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.96/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.44 for Kortrijk.
How the model reaches 72% for Gent to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gent to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Gent's ratings add 4 points and Kortrijk's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 72%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Gent's ratings47%+4
- Kortrijk's ratings72%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gent at home · Kortrijk away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Gent 8, Kortrijk 8.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Kortrijk have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gent
- at SK Beveren22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 51%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 53%
Kortrijk
- vs Union St. Gilloise22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 9%
- at OH Leuven27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.