Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
vs
Stal Mielec
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2–1 Stal Mielec
The model makes it 58% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 22% draw, 20% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2.35, Stal Mielec 1.19.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are top on 21 points from 10 games; Stal Mielec are 14th on 12 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Chrobry Głogów.
- Stal Mielec have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Warta Poznań.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–2 Stal Mielec.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026
- W2-0ŁKS Łódź19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Unia Skierniewice13 September 2026
- W1-0Warta Poznań4 September 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza28 August 2026
Stal Mielec
- W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026
- L1-7away to Lechia Gdansk19 September 2026
- L1-2Nieciecza14 September 2026
- D1-1Odra Opole5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Siedlce29 August 2026
What these results say
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Mielec scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
- 6 April 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–2 Stal MielecI Liga
- 19 September 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
The two sides
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.19 for Stal Mielec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 1.19 for Stal Mielec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki rate 0.60 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stal Mielec rate 0.62 and 2.41.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 19.4% chance of the title and Stal Mielec 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki against 1.19 for Stal Mielec. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.41 for Stal Mielec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home · Stal Mielec away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 10, Stal Mielec 10.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 3 there.
Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- at Pogoń Siedlce8 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- vs Arka Gdynia21 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- at Podbeskidzie28 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
Stal Mielec
- vs Ruch Chorzów8 Nov · I Ligawin 36%
- at Polonia Warszawa21 Nov · I Ligawin 22%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice28 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.