ŁKS Łódź
vs
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: ŁKS Łódź 2–1 Stal Rzeszów
The model makes it 55% ŁKS Łódź, 24% draw, 21% Stal Rzeszów — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: ŁKS Łódź 2.04, Stal Rzeszów 1.07.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to ŁKS Łódź: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. ŁKS Łódź's rating is built from 46 Polish I Liga matches and Stal Rzeszów's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ŁKS Łódź are 8th on 18 points from 11 games; Stal Rzeszów are 10th on 17 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- ŁKS Łódź have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Podbeskidzie.
- Stal Rzeszów have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Last 6 meetings: ŁKS Łódź 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended ŁKS Łódź 2–1 Stal Rzeszów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Rzeszów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ŁKS Łódź at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Rzeszów
ŁKS Łódź
I Liga
- W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
- L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arka Gdynia6 September 2026
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga
- W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
- W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
What these results say
- ŁKS Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for ŁKS Łódź had two goals or fewer.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Rzeszów
- 25 April 2026ŁKS Łódź 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 18 October 2025Stal Rzeszów 1–4 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 4 May 2025ŁKS Łódź 5–0 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 26 October 2024Stal Rzeszów 2–4 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
- 12 March 2023ŁKS Łódź 1–0 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 14 August 2022Stal Rzeszów 1–0 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
The two sides
ŁKS Łódź carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.17 for Stal Rzeszów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.04 goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.07 for Stal Rzeszów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ŁKS Łódź rate 0.56 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stal Rzeszów rate 0.57 and 2.24.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ŁKS Łódź a 7.4% chance of the title and Stal Rzeszów 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ŁKS Łódź the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź against 1.07 for Stal Rzeszów. ŁKS Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.24 for Stal Rzeszów.
How the model reaches 55% for ŁKS Łódź to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ŁKS Łódź to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, ŁKS Łódź's ratings take away 24 points and Stal Rzeszów's ratings add 35 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- ŁKS Łódź's ratings20%−24
- Stal Rzeszów's ratings55%+35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ŁKS Łódź at home · Stal Rzeszów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: ŁKS Łódź 11, Stal Rzeszów 11.
ŁKS Łódź score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 4 there.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); ŁKS Łódź have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
ŁKS Łódź
- at Miedz Legnica20 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Lechia Gdansk28 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- at Unia Skierniewice5 Dec · I Ligawin 39%
Stal Rzeszów
- vs Polonia Bytom22 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- at Nieciecza28 Nov · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Warta Poznań5 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.