Warta Poznań
vs
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Warta Poznań 2–1 Polonia Warszawa
The model makes it 45% Warta Poznań, 27% draw, 28% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Warta Poznań 1.67, Polonia Warszawa 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Warta Poznań's rating is built from 11 Polish I Liga matches and Polonia Warszawa's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Warta Poznań are 6th on 18 points from 11 games; Polonia Warszawa are 2nd on 21 points from 12 games — I Liga.
- Warta Poznań have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Unia Skierniewice.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Miedz Legnica.
- Last 2 meetings: Polonia Warszawa 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2025, ended Warta Poznań 1–2 Polonia Warszawa.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Warta Poznań at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
I Liga
- W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026
- W3-2Puszcza Niepołomice18 September 2026
- W3-0Arka Gdynia12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki4 September 2026
Polonia Warszawa
I Liga
- D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
What these results say
- Warta Poznań scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 18 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
- 15 March 2025Warta Poznań 1–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 23 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 2–0 Warta PoznańI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Warta Poznań carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.33 for Polonia Warszawa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Warta Poznań and 1.19 for Polonia Warszawa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Warta Poznań rate 0.62 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Polonia Warszawa rate 0.59 and 1.66.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Polonia Warszawa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Warta Poznań a 12.8% chance of the title and Polonia Warszawa 11.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Warta Poznań the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Warta Poznań against 1.19 for Polonia Warszawa. Warta Poznań's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.66 for Polonia Warszawa.
How the model reaches 45% for Warta Poznań to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Warta Poznań to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Warta Poznań's ratings take away 24 points and Polonia Warszawa's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Warta Poznań's ratings20%−24
- Polonia Warszawa's ratings45%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Warta Poznań at home · Polonia Warszawa away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Warta Poznań 11, Polonia Warszawa 12.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Warta Poznań
- at Ruch Chorzów21 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce28 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Stal Rzeszów5 Dec · I Ligawin 39%
Polonia Warszawa
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 58%
- at Odra Opole28 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Podbeskidzie5 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice12 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.