Polonia Bytom
vs
Lechia Gdansk
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Polonia Bytom 2–1 Lechia Gdansk
The model makes it 42% Polonia Bytom, 24% draw, 34% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Polonia Bytom 1.93, Lechia Gdansk 1.67.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Polonia Bytom's rating is built from 46 Polish I Liga matches and Lechia Gdansk's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Polonia Bytom are 9th on 18 points from 12 games; Lechia Gdansk are 4th on 19 points from 12 games — I Liga.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Unia Skierniewice.
- Lechia Gdansk have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Puszcza Niepołomice.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polonia Bytom at 42% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
Polonia Bytom
I Liga
- W2-1away to Unia Skierniewice24 October 2026
- W3-2Chrobry Głogów17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
- D0-0Ruch Chorzów18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Polonia Warszawa11 September 2026
Lechia Gdansk
I Liga
- L1-2away to Puszcza Niepołomice24 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026
- W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
- W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Bytom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Polonia Bytom carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.36 for Lechia Gdansk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Polonia Bytom and 1.67 for Lechia Gdansk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polonia Bytom rate 0.63 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lechia Gdansk rate 0.69 and 1.88.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lechia Gdansk, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polonia Bytom a 3.2% chance of the title and Lechia Gdansk 14.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Bytom the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Polonia Bytom against 1.67 for Lechia Gdansk. Polonia Bytom's attack/defence rating is 0.63/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.88 for Lechia Gdansk.
How the model reaches 42% for Polonia Bytom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polonia Bytom to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Polonia Bytom's ratings take away 27 points and Lechia Gdansk's ratings add 25 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Polonia Bytom's ratings17%−27
- Lechia Gdansk's ratings42%+25
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polonia Bytom at home · Lechia Gdansk away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Polonia Bytom 12, Lechia Gdansk 12.
Lechia Gdansk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polonia Bytom
- at Stal Rzeszów22 Nov · I Ligawin 35%
- at Miedz Legnica28 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Nieciecza5 Dec · I Ligawin 44%
- at Warta Poznań12 Dec · I Ligawin 25%
Lechia Gdansk
- vs Odra Opole22 Nov · I Ligawin 52%
- at ŁKS Łódź28 Nov · I Ligawin 30%
- vs Chrobry Głogów5 Dec · I Ligawin 50%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki12 Dec · I Ligawin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.