Stade Nyonnais
vs
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Stade Nyonnais 0–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
The model makes it 17% Stade Nyonnais, 27% draw, 56% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — fair odds of 5.88, 3.70 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (15%).
Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 0.67, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.68.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Stade Nyonnais's rating is built from 46 Challenge League matches and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stade Nyonnais are bottom on 5 points from 10 games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 24 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- Stade Nyonnais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Aarau.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Rapperswil.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Stade Nyonnais.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 56% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Stade Nyonnais
Challenge League
- W2-1FC Aarau9 October 2026
- L0-5away to FC WIL 190018 September 2026
- L1-3Neuchatel Xamax FC11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Yverdon Sport6 September 2026
- D2-2FC Winterthur1 September 2026
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
- W4-0FC WIL 190011 September 2026
- W2-0away to SC Kriens4 September 2026
- W3-0Étoile Carouge1 September 2026
What these results say
- Stade Nyonnais conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Stade Nyonnais had three goals or more.
- Stade Nyonnais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 5 |
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stade Nyonnais vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- 24 July 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 11 May 2026Stade Nyonnais 1–3 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 14 March 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 1 November 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–3 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
- 12 September 2025Stade Nyonnais 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 26 April 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 Stade NyonnaisChallenge League
A clear gap in the ratings
Stade Nyonnais carry a model rating of 5.76 against 6.38 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.67 goals for Stade Nyonnais and 1.68 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Nyonnais rate 0.30 in attack and 2.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy rate 0.52 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Nyonnais a 0% chance of the title and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 80.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Stade Nyonnais against 1.68 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stade Nyonnais's attack/defence rating is 0.3/2.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.38 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
How the model reaches 56% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Stade Nyonnais's ratings add 54 points and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings take away 27 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Stade Nyonnais's ratings83%+54
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings56%−27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Nyonnais at home · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Stade Nyonnais 10, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 10.
Stade Nyonnais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have let in 1 there.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Stade Nyonnais have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Stade Nyonnais
- vs FC WIL 190020 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
- at Neuchatel Xamax FC28 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 16%
- vs SC Kriens5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 23%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- vs SC Kriens20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 51%
- at Étoile Carouge27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 45%
- vs FC Winterthur5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.