Odra Opole
vs
Unia Skierniewice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Odra Opole 1–0 Unia Skierniewice
The model makes it 42% Odra Opole, 32% draw, 26% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 2.38, 3.13 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Odra Opole 1.19, Unia Skierniewice 0.83.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Odra Opole's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Unia Skierniewice's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Odra Opole are 13th on 12 points from 11 games; Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 11 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Odra Opole have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Ruch Chorzów.
- Unia Skierniewice are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Warta Poznań.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Odra Opole at 42% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
Odra Opole
I Liga
- L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
- W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Nieciecza19 September 2026
- L0-1Stal Rzeszów13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Stal Mielec5 September 2026
Unia Skierniewice
I Liga
- L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
- D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie20 September 2026
- W3-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ruch Chorzów7 September 2026
What these results say
- Odra Opole failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Odra Opole conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Odra Opole had two goals or fewer.
- Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Odra Opole carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.14 for Unia Skierniewice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Odra Opole and 0.83 for Unia Skierniewice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Odra Opole rate 0.38 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Unia Skierniewice rate 0.47 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odra Opole a 0.1% chance of the title and Unia Skierniewice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Odra Opole the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Odra Opole against 0.83 for Unia Skierniewice. Odra Opole's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.93 for Unia Skierniewice.
How the model reaches 42% for Odra Opole to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Odra Opole to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Odra Opole's ratings take away 29 points and Unia Skierniewice's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Odra Opole's ratings15%−29
- Unia Skierniewice's ratings42%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Odra Opole at home · Unia Skierniewice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Odra Opole 11, Unia Skierniewice 11.
Odra Opole score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 4 there.
Unia Skierniewice score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Odra Opole have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Odra Opole
- at Lechia Gdansk22 Nov · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Polonia Warszawa28 Nov · I Ligawin 33%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki5 Dec · I Ligawin 21%
Unia Skierniewice
- vs Pogoń Siedlce22 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
- at Chrobry Głogów28 Nov · I Ligawin 24%
- vs ŁKS Łódź5 Dec · I Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.