SC Kriens
vs
Rapperswil
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: SC Kriens 2–1 Rapperswil
The model makes it 53% SC Kriens, 25% draw, 22% Rapperswil — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Kriens 1.94, Rapperswil 1.09.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Edge to SC Kriens: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. SC Kriens's rating is built from 10 Challenge League matches and Rapperswil's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- SC Kriens are 4th on 15 points from 10 games; Rapperswil are 7th on 10 points from 10 games — Challenge League.
- SC Kriens are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC WIL 1900.
- Rapperswil have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
- Last 6 meetings: Rapperswil 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 September 2026, ended Rapperswil 1–1 SC Kriens.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Kriens vs Rapperswil
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Kriens at 53% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Kriens vs Rapperswil
SC Kriens
Challenge League
- D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
- W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Aarau12 September 2026
- L0-2Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rapperswil1 September 2026
Rapperswil
Challenge League
- L0-3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9 October 2026
- W3-0away to Neuchatel Xamax FC18 September 2026
- W2-0Yverdon Sport11 September 2026
- L2-3away to FC Aarau4 September 2026
- D1-1SC Kriens1 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Kriens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rapperswil scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Rapperswil | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Kriens vs Rapperswil
- 1 September 2026Rapperswil 1–1 SC KriensChallenge League
- 26 April 2025SC Kriens 1–5 Rapperswil1. Liga Promotion
- 23 October 2024Rapperswil 0–2 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
- 13 April 2024Rapperswil 4–1 SC Kriens1. Liga Promotion
- 7 October 2023SC Kriens 2–5 Rapperswil1. Liga Promotion
- 18 March 2023SC Kriens 2–0 Rapperswil1. Liga Promotion
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Kriens carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.05 for Rapperswil. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for SC Kriens and 1.09 for Rapperswil. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Kriens rate 0.49 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapperswil rate 0.49 and 2.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SC Kriens a 0.7% chance of the title and Rapperswil 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Kriens the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SC Kriens against 1.09 for Rapperswil. SC Kriens's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.44 for Rapperswil.
How the model reaches 53% for SC Kriens to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SC Kriens to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, SC Kriens's ratings take away 30 points and Rapperswil's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- SC Kriens's ratings14%−30
- Rapperswil's ratings53%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Kriens at home · Rapperswil away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: SC Kriens 10, Rapperswil 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SC Kriens
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 21%
- vs FC Aarau27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at Stade Nyonnais5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 49%
Rapperswil
- vs FC Aarau20 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 40%
- at FC Winterthur27 Nov · Challenge Leaguewin 20%
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.